NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
Homestead-Miami SpeedwayThe NASCAR Cup Series Championship race moves to Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2026, ending a seven-year run at Phoenix and restoring the 1.5-mile South Florida oval to its former role as the sport's finale. Homestead's variable-banking progressive-design turns (18 to 20 degrees) create a multi-groove racing surface where cars can run the top, bottom, or anywhere in between, making it one of the most strategically rich tracks on the schedule. From 2002 through 2019, Homestead was the championship venue, and that era produced some of the most memorable title moments in NASCAR history: Kurt Busch's 2004 clinching run, Tony Stewart's 2011 walk-off over Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson's three consecutive Homestead championships, and Kyle Busch's dramatic 2019 winner-take-all victory. Under the 2026 Chase format, the finale crowns the driver with the most cumulative points across the 10 Chase races rather than the winner of a single elimination race, but winning at Homestead still matters. A race win pays 55 points, potentially swinging the championship in one afternoon. The 267-lap finale concludes the season in the place where so many careers were defined, and the return to Homestead is one of the most anticipated scheduling changes of the 2026 calendar.
Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin has 27 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 3 wins and a 10.5 average finish.
- Chase Briscoe has 10 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 2 wins and a 11.2 average finish.
- Ryan Blaney has 18 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 13.6 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Homestead-Miami Speedway from 1949-2026.
The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race on?
The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race airs on NBC on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Homestead-Miami Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?
The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race green flag is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026, airing on NBC. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 1679 | P5 |
| 2 | Chase Briscoe | 1605 | P4 |
| 3 | Chris Buescher | 1579 | P6 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 1568 | P36 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 1560 | P18 |
| 6 | Christopher Bell | 1559 | P29 |
| 7 | William Byron | 1555 | P12 |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick | 1544 | P8 |
| 9 | Bubba Wallace | 1544 | P3 |
| 10 | Daniel Suarez | 1526 | P22 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin Best in Field | 6.2 | 18.2% |
| 2 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 17.8% |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 16.3% |
| 4 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 15.4% |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 12.8% |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 11.0% |
| 7 | Ty Gibbs | 10.7 | 9.9% |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.7 | 8.7% |
| 9 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 7.7% |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 6.7% |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 5.5% |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 5.2% |
| 13 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 4.5% |
| 14 | Carson Hocevar | 13.2 | 3.9% |
| 15 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 3.6% |
| 16 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 3.1% |
| 17 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 2.8% |
| 18 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 2.2% |
| 19 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 2.2% |
| 20 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 1.7% |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 1.3% |
| 22 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 0.9% |
| 23 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 0.7% |
| 24 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 0.7% |
| 25 | Zane Smith | 18.3 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Todd Gilliland | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 27 | Casey Mears | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 28 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 0.4% |
| 29 | Riley Herbst | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 30 | Kevin Magnussen | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 32 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 33 | Noah Gragson | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 34 | Josh Berry | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Katherine Legge | 22.2 | 0.1% |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 0.1% |
| 39 | Connor Zilisch | 26.1 | 0.0% |
| 40 | Cody Ware | 57.0 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12
(1/5 top-5 hits)
37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races
History at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (14 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Straight Talk Wireless 400 | Kyle Larson |
| 2024 | Straight Talk Wireless 400 | Tyler Reddick |
| 2023 | 4EVER 400 | Christopher Bell |
| 2022 | Dixie Vodka 400 | Kyle Larson |
| 2021 | Dixie Vodka 400 | William Byron |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 645 |
| Kyle Busch | 424 |
| Denny Hamlin | 373 |
| Ryan Blaney | 294 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 290 |
Track Type Tendencies
Intermediate tracks like Homestead-Miami Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.
Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership