Cup Series Preview Sunday, November 8, 2026

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Laps 267 Distance 400 mi Type intermediate Coverage NBC · 3:00 PM ET Stages 80 / 165 / 267

1.5

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Sunday, November 8, 2026

3:00 PM ET

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship race moves to Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2026, ending a seven-year run at Phoenix and restoring the 1.5-mile South Florida oval to its former role as the sport's finale. Homestead's variable-banking progressive-design turns (18 to 20 degrees) create a multi-groove racing surface where cars can run the top, bottom, or anywhere in between, making it one of the most strategically rich tracks on the schedule. From 2002 through 2019, Homestead was the championship venue, and that era produced some of the most memorable title moments in NASCAR history: Kurt Busch's 2004 clinching run, Tony Stewart's 2011 walk-off over Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson's three consecutive Homestead championships, and Kyle Busch's dramatic 2019 winner-take-all victory. Under the 2026 Chase format, the finale crowns the driver with the most cumulative points across the 10 Chase races rather than the winner of a single elimination race, but winning at Homestead still matters. A race win pays 55 points, potentially swinging the championship in one afternoon. The 267-lap finale concludes the season in the place where so many careers were defined, and the return to Homestead is one of the most anticipated scheduling changes of the 2026 calendar.

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 27 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 3 wins and a 10.5 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 12 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 1 win and a 13.3 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 18 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 13.6 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Homestead-Miami Speedway from 1949-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race on?

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race airs on NBC on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Homestead-Miami Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race green flag is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026, airing on NBC. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1678	14	2	P5 (2025)
2	Chase Briscoe		1600	5	0	P4 (2025)
3	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1576	6	1	P29 (2025)
4	Ryan Blaney		1565	11	0	P36 (2025)
5	Bubba Wallace		1559	7	0	P3 (2025)
6	William Byron	Prev Winner	1554	8	1	P12 (2025)
7	Chase Elliott		1550	10	0	P18 (2025)
8	Tyler Reddick	Prev Winner	1550	6	1	P8 (2025)
9	Chris Buescher		1548	10	0	P6 (2025)
10	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1545	12	2	P1 (2025)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Christopher Bell	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	9.2	15.5%	54.2%	73.0%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	9.2	12.8%	49.3%	69.3%
6	Kyle Larson	Favorite	10.1	11.1%	46.6%	67.3%
7	Bubba Wallace	Contender	10.7	9.9%	43.8%	65.4%
8	Tyler Reddick	Contender	10.7	8.8%	41.5%	63.4%
9	Joey Logano	Contender	11.2	7.4%	37.9%	60.3%
10	William Byron	Contender	11.2	7.4%	37.9%	60.3%
11	Chase Elliott	Contender	11.9	5.5%	33.7%	57.5%
12	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.7	5.1%	31.7%	55.8%
13	Ryan Preece	Contender	13.1	4.7%	28.7%	53.8%
14	Daniel Suarez	Contender	13.2	4.0%	26.9%	51.9%
15	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	13.3	3.6%	25.0%	50.1%
16	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	22.7%	47.9%
17	Ross Chastain	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.1%	21.5%	47.1%
18	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.4%	17.5%	41.8%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.4%	40.5%
20	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	15.4	1.9%	14.9%	38.8%
21	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.2%	11.6%	32.5%
22	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.4%	30.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.8%	9.6%	28.6%
24	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.4%	27.0%
25	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.3%	24.6%
26	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	19.1	0.5%	6.5%	22.5%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	19.1	0.4%	5.8%	21.1%
28	Jimmie Johnson	Dark Horse	19.9	0.4%	5.3%	20.2%
29	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.7%	18.5%
30	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.6%
31	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.9	0.2%	3.6%	15.6%
32	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	10.4%
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.0%
34	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.1%	11.6%
35	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.1%	11.7%
36	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.5%	13.0%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.9	0.1%	1.5%	8.8%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.7	0.0%	1.1%	7.4%
39	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	25.7	0.0%	0.6%	5.7%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	58.0	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

History at Homestead-Miami Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (14 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2025	Straight Talk Wireless 400	Kyle Larson	—	Hendrick Motorsports	19
2024	Straight Talk Wireless 400	Tyler Reddick	—	23XI Racing	97
2023	4EVER 400	Christopher Bell	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	26
2022	Dixie Vodka 400	Kyle Larson	—	Hendrick Motorsports	199
2021	Dixie Vodka 400	William Byron	—	Hendrick Motorsports	102

All Results at This Track

2025 Larson 2024 Reddick 2023 Bell 2022 Larson 2021 Byron 2020 Hamlin 2019 Busch 2018 Logano 2017 Jr. 2016 Johnson 2015 Busch 2014 Harvick 2013 Hamlin 2012 Gordon

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Kyle Larson	645
Kyle Busch	424
Denny Hamlin	373
Ryan Blaney	294
Martin Truex, Jr.	290

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Homestead-Miami Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.