The NR-Rating model ran 10,000 simulations of this race. Top 10 contenders by win probability, with their Top-5 finish share and expected finishing position.

Rank	Driver	Win Prob.	Top-5 Share	Avg. Finish
1	Pick Denny Hamlin	18.6%	57.4%	6.8
2	Ryan Blaney	17.5%	56.5%	6.8
3	Christopher Bell	16.2%	54.5%	8.3
4	Kyle Larson	15.7%	53.0%	8.6
5	Joey Logano	12.8%	49.1%	8.6
6	Ty Gibbs	12.0%	46.8%	9.9
7	Chase Briscoe	9.9%	43.4%	10.3
8	Chase Elliott	8.4%	40.6%	10.3
9	Tyler Reddick	7.5%	37.5%	10.8
10	Ryan Preece	6.4%	35.5%	10.8

Season So Far

Standings

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1 Kyle Larson 2367

2 Denny Hamlin 2318 -49

3 Christopher Bell 2316 -51

4 Chase Briscoe 2302 -65

5 Ryan Blaney 2282 -85

Championship Odds

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1 Denny Hamlin 15.5%

2 Ryan Blaney 14.7%

3 Tyler Reddick 11.4%

4 Kyle Larson 10.6%

5 Christopher Bell 10.3%

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Drivers

Tracks

Upcoming Races

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Date	Race	Track	Type
Oct 18	Freeway Insurance 500	Phoenix Raceway	short
Oct 25	Yellawood 500	Talladega Superspeedway	superspeedway
Nov 1	Xfinity 500	Martinsville Speedway	short
Nov 8	NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race	Homestead-Miami Speedway	intermediate

About NASCAR Reference

NASCAR Reference is an independent, data-first platform covering the full breadth of stock car racing. Our database spans 78 seasons of Cup Series results dating back to 1949, 4,362 driver profiles with complete career statistics, and detailed track histories across all three national series. Browse historical standings or explore our NR-Rating prediction model, built on a transparent methodology, to see win probabilities, expected finishes, and performance quality scores. Built for fans settling debates, media on deadline, and bettors seeking an analytical edge. Learn more about our mission.

Seasons: 78
Drivers: 4,362
Tracks: 187
Series: 3

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