Cup Series Preview Sunday, October 11, 2026

Bank of America 400

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Laps 267 Distance 400 mi Type intermediate Coverage USA · 3:00 PM ET Stages 80 / 165 / 267

1.5

asphalt

Surface

Green Flag In

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Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 40 starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 11.5 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 15 starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with 1 win and a 10.7 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 24 starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 17.3 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Charlotte Motor Speedway from 1949-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Bank of America 400 on?

The Bank of America 400 airs on USA on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Charlotte Motor Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The Bank of America 400 green flag is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1678	22	1	P3 (2026)
2	Chase Briscoe		1600	6	0	P34 (2026)
3	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1576	8	1	P2 (2026)
4	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1565	16	1	P7 (2026)
5	Bubba Wallace		1559	10	0	P22 (2026)
6	William Byron		1554	10	0	P9 (2026)
7	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1550	15	1	P37 (2026)
8	Tyler Reddick		1550	8	0	P4 (2026)
9	Chris Buescher		1548	14	0	P30 (2026)
10	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1545	16	1	P5 (2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Christopher Bell	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	9.2	15.5%	54.2%	73.0%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	9.2	12.8%	49.3%	69.3%
6	Kyle Larson	Favorite	10.1	11.1%	46.6%	67.3%
7	Bubba Wallace	Contender	10.7	9.9%	43.8%	65.4%
8	Tyler Reddick	Contender	10.7	8.8%	41.5%	63.4%
9	Joey Logano	Contender	11.2	7.4%	37.9%	60.3%
10	William Byron	Contender	11.2	7.4%	37.9%	60.3%
11	Chase Elliott	Contender	11.9	5.5%	33.7%	57.5%
12	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.7	5.1%	31.7%	55.8%
13	Ryan Preece	Contender	13.1	4.7%	28.7%	53.8%
14	Daniel Suarez	Contender	13.2	4.0%	26.9%	51.9%
15	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	13.3	3.6%	25.0%	50.1%
16	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	22.7%	47.9%
17	Ross Chastain	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.1%	21.5%	47.1%
18	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.4%	17.5%	41.8%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.4%	40.5%
20	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	15.4	1.9%	14.9%	38.8%
21	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.2%	11.6%	32.5%
22	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.4%	30.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.8%	9.6%	28.6%
24	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.4%	27.0%
25	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.3%	24.6%
26	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	19.1	0.5%	6.5%	22.5%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	19.1	0.4%	5.8%	21.1%
28	Jimmie Johnson	Dark Horse	19.9	0.4%	5.3%	20.2%
29	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.7%	18.5%
30	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.6%
31	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.9	0.2%	3.6%	15.6%
32	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	10.4%
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.0%
34	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.1%	11.6%
35	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.1%	11.7%
36	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.9	0.1%	1.5%	8.8%
37	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.5%	13.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.7	0.0%	1.1%	7.4%
39	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	25.7	0.0%	0.6%	5.7%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	58.0	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

History at Charlotte Motor Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (22 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	Coca-Cola 600	Daniel Suarez	+Under Caution	Spire Motorsports	17
2025	Coca-Cola 600	Ross Chastain	—	Trackhouse Racing	8
2024	Coca-Cola 600	Christopher Bell	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	90
2023	Coca-Cola 600	Ryan Blaney	—	Team Penske	163
2022	Coca-Cola 600	Denny Hamlin	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	15

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Martin Truex, Jr.	1058
Kyle Busch	749
Jimmie Johnson	550
William Byron	485
Kyle Larson	447

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Charlotte Motor Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays

Martin Truex, Jr. 1058 laps led

Kyle Busch 749 laps led

Jimmie Johnson 550 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays

Denny Hamlin 10.05 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks

Tyler Reddick 9.50 avg, 0 wins

William Byron 13.20 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership

Explore More

Track History