Cup Series Preview

Freeway Insurance 500

Phoenix Raceway
Laps 312 Distance 312 mi Type short Coverage USA · 3:00 PM ET Stages 60 / 185 / 312
1
MI
asphalt
Surface
Race Date
Sunday, October 18, 2026
3:00 PM ET

Phoenix Raceway's fall Chase race carries the weight of championship implications every year. The 1-mile flat oval with its distinctive dogleg has been one of the most pivotal tracks in the playoff era, and even under the 2026 Chase format — which replaces elimination rounds with cumulative points — Phoenix remains a must-win venue for drivers chasing cumulative Chase points. The flat surface offers no banking to lean on, and the tight turns demand mechanical grip that rewards teams who find the right combination of spring rates and sway bar settings. Pit strategy is central to every Phoenix race, with restarts, clean air, and track position mattering more than raw speed. Kevin Harvick owned this track for nearly a decade, winning nine races at Phoenix before his retirement, and Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have been the modern heirs to Phoenix dominance. The 312-lap race splits into three stages that each become their own strategy game, and the closing 127-lap run to the checkered flag often decides which Chase drivers leave Arizona with their title hopes alive. In 2026, Phoenix sits in the back half of the 10-race Chase, making this a critical cumulative-points opportunity for every championship contender.

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin has 29 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 11.5 average finish.
  • Ryan Blaney has 20 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 7.8 average finish.
  • Chase Elliott has 18 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 11.6 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Phoenix Raceway from 1949-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Carl Edwards has won 3 times at Phoenix Raceway with a 6.3 average finish.

See Carl Edwards's full stats
LAST TIME HERE

The last Cup race at Phoenix Raceway was the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 (chaos score: 75.5).

Track history
Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Freeway Insurance 500 on?

The Freeway Insurance 500 airs on USA on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Phoenix Raceway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The Freeway Insurance 500 green flag is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

NR-Rating Track Rankings
#DriverElo RatingLast Finish
1Kyle Larson
1656
P3
2Ryan Blaney
1648
P1
3Denny Hamlin
1623
P5
4Christopher Bell
1594
P2
5Joey Logano
1577
P31
6Chase Elliott
1575
P23
7William Byron
1550
P7
8Ty Gibbs
1544
P4
9Ross Chastain
1539
P28
10Brad Keselowski
1536
P15
NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

# Driver Exp. Finish Win %
1 Denny Hamlin Best in Field 6.8 18.6%
2 Ryan Blaney 6.8 17.5%
3 Chase Elliott 8.3 16.2%
4 Kyle Larson 8.6 13.2%
5 Christopher Bell 8.6 13.2%
6 Tyler Reddick 9.9 11.5%
7 Chris Buescher 10.3 9.5%
8 William Byron 10.3 8.2%
9 Ryan Preece 10.8 7.0%
10 Brad Keselowski 12.0 5.5%
11 Joey Logano 12.1 4.9%
12 Ty Gibbs 12.6 4.3%
13 Chase Briscoe 12.6 3.5%
14 Ross Chastain 13.8 3.4%
15 Bubba Wallace 14.0 2.7%
16 Alex Bowman 14.0 2.7%
17 Carson Hocevar 14.7 2.4%
18 Michael McDowell 15.0 2.1%
19 Daniel Suarez 15.6 1.7%
20 Kyle Busch 15.6 1.3%
21 Austin Dillon 17.0 0.8%
22 Austin Cindric 17.0 0.8%
23 Todd Gilliland 17.1 0.7%
24 Casey Mears 18.0 0.6%
25 Erik Jones 17.7 0.5%
26 Shane van Gisbergen 18.3 0.4%
27 Josh Berry 19.0 0.4%
28 John Hunter Nemechek 20.1 0.3%
29 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.1 0.3%
30 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 0.3%
31 Connor Zilisch 21.2 0.2%
32 Katherine Legge 21.2 0.2%
33 Zane Smith 20.2 0.2%
34 Noah Gragson 23.0 0.1%
35 Riley Herbst 22.1 0.1%
36 Cole Custer 23.0 0.1%
37 Ty Dillon 24.3 0.1%
38 B.J. McLeod 25.6 0.0%
39 Cody Ware 29.8 0.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

History at Phoenix Raceway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (19 races)

Recent Results

Year Race Winner
2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 Ryan Blaney
2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Ryan Blaney
2025 Shriners Children's 500 Christopher Bell
2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Joey Logano
2024 Shriners Children's 500 Christopher Bell

All Results at This Track

Laps Led Leaders

Driver Total Laps Led
Joey Logano 955
Denny Hamlin 707
Kyle Busch 605
Chase Elliott 583
Ryan Blaney 491

Track Type Tendencies

short

Phoenix Raceway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays
Joey Logano 955 laps led
Denny Hamlin 707 laps led
Kyle Busch 605 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays
Ryan Blaney 8.24 avg
Kyle Larson 12.19 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks
Jimmie Johnson 12.63 avg, 0 wins
Josh Berry 13.25 avg, 0 wins
Brad Keselowski 13.26 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership

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