Phoenix Raceway's fall Chase race carries the weight of championship implications every year. The 1-mile flat oval with its distinctive dogleg has been one of the most pivotal tracks in the playoff era, and even under the 2026 Chase format — which replaces elimination rounds with cumulative points — Phoenix remains a must-win venue for drivers chasing cumulative Chase points. The flat surface offers no banking to lean on, and the tight turns demand mechanical grip that rewards teams who find the right combination of spring rates and sway bar settings. Pit strategy is central to every Phoenix race, with restarts, clean air, and track position mattering more than raw speed. Kevin Harvick owned this track for nearly a decade, winning nine races at Phoenix before his retirement, and Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have been the modern heirs to Phoenix dominance. The 312-lap race splits into three stages that each become their own strategy game, and the closing 127-lap run to the checkered flag often decides which Chase drivers leave Arizona with their title hopes alive. In 2026, Phoenix sits in the back half of the 10-race Chase, making this a critical cumulative-points opportunity for every championship contender.
Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin has 29 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 11.5 average finish.
- Ryan Blaney has 20 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 7.8 average finish.
- Chase Elliott has 18 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 11.6 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Phoenix Raceway from 1949-2026.
Carl Edwards has won 3 times at Phoenix Raceway with a 6.3 average finish.
See Carl Edwards's full statsThe last Cup race at Phoenix Raceway was the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 (chaos score: 75.5).
Track historyThe narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the Freeway Insurance 500 on?
The Freeway Insurance 500 airs on USA on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Phoenix Raceway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?
The Freeway Insurance 500 green flag is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 1656 | P3 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 1648 | P1 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 1623 | P5 |
| 4 | Christopher Bell | 1594 | P2 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 1577 | P31 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 1575 | P23 |
| 7 | William Byron | 1550 | P7 |
| 8 | Ty Gibbs | 1544 | P4 |
| 9 | Ross Chastain | 1539 | P28 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 1536 | P15 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin Best in Field | 6.8 | 18.6% |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 17.5% |
| 3 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 16.2% |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 13.2% |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 13.2% |
| 6 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 11.5% |
| 7 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 9.5% |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.3 | 8.2% |
| 9 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 7.0% |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 5.5% |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 4.9% |
| 12 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 4.3% |
| 13 | Chase Briscoe | 12.6 | 3.5% |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 3.4% |
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 2.7% |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 2.7% |
| 17 | Carson Hocevar | 14.7 | 2.4% |
| 18 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 2.1% |
| 19 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 1.7% |
| 20 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 1.3% |
| 21 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 0.8% |
| 22 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 0.8% |
| 23 | Todd Gilliland | 17.1 | 0.7% |
| 24 | Casey Mears | 18.0 | 0.6% |
| 25 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 0.4% |
| 27 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 0.4% |
| 28 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 0.3% |
| 29 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 0.3% |
| 30 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Connor Zilisch | 21.2 | 0.2% |
| 32 | Katherine Legge | 21.2 | 0.2% |
| 33 | Zane Smith | 20.2 | 0.2% |
| 34 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 0.1% |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 0.0% |
| 39 | Cody Ware | 29.8 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24
(1/5 top-5 hits)
38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races
History at Phoenix Raceway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (19 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight Talk Wireless 500 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2025 | NASCAR Cup Series Championship | Ryan Blaney |
| 2025 | Shriners Children's 500 | Christopher Bell |
| 2024 | NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race | Joey Logano |
| 2024 | Shriners Children's 500 | Christopher Bell |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 955 |
| Denny Hamlin | 707 |
| Kyle Busch | 605 |
| Chase Elliott | 583 |
| Ryan Blaney | 491 |
Track Type Tendencies
Phoenix Raceway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.
Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership