Sonoma Raceway is a different kind of road course — 12 turns across 1.99 miles of rolling Northern California wine country, with elevation changes that feel more like a motocross track than a Cup stop. The configuration winds through the Carneros region with heavy braking into Turn 11's hairpin, high-commitment esses, and a blind crest at the top of the hill that separates the brave from the cautious. Cup stock cars have raced here since 1989, and the event has produced some of the best road course drivers in series history: Jeff Gordon won five times at Sonoma, Tony Stewart three, and Kyle Larson broke through with a dominant 2021 win that signaled his championship-season form. The track is narrow, passing zones are limited, and tire strategy over 110 laps often comes down to stretching fuel or pitting early for a short final run. The modern Cup field has produced several new road course aces — Ross Chastain, William Byron, and Chris Buescher all contending in recent years — making Sonoma a strategic puzzle where one bad restart can cost 10 positions and one patient lap can turn a race around.
Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Tyler Reddick has 5 starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 18.4 average finish.
- Chris Buescher has 8 starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 11.0 average finish.
- Christopher Bell has 4 starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 12.3 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Sonoma Raceway from 1949-2026.
Ernie Irvan finishes in the top 10 at Sonoma Raceway 83% of the time across 6 starts.
Ernie Irvan's track recordThe last Cup race at Sonoma Raceway was the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 (chaos score: 47.7).
Track historyThe narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the Toyota / Save Mart 350 on?
The Toyota / Save Mart 350 airs on TNT on Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET, broadcast from Sonoma Raceway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?
The Toyota / Save Mart 350 green flag is set for 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, June 28, 2026, airing on TNT. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Bell | 1568 | P5 |
| 2 | Shane van Gisbergen | 1560 | P1 |
| 3 | Chris Buescher | 1556 | P16 |
| 4 | Chase Elliott | 1555 | P3 |
| 5 | Tyler Reddick | 1553 | P6 |
| 6 | William Byron | 1543 | P8 |
| 7 | Michael McDowell | 1525 | P4 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 1518 | P9 |
| 9 | A.J. Allmendinger | 1515 | P18 |
| 10 | Kyle Busch | 1514 | P10 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick Best in Field | 11.2 | 12.6% |
| 2 | Chris Buescher | 10.2 | 11.8% |
| 3 | Christopher Bell | 7.2 | 11.7% |
| 4 | Chase Elliott | 7.2 | 11.5% |
| 5 | William Byron | 11.5 | 10.8% |
| 6 | Shane van Gisbergen | 12.7 | 9.2% |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 12.7 | 9.2% |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 12.7 | 8.5% |
| 9 | Kyle Larson | 12.9 | 7.6% |
| 10 | Michael McDowell | 13.0 | 4.4% |
| 11 | Ross Chastain | 16.2 | 4.2% |
| 12 | Kyle Busch | 13.0 | 3.9% |
| 13 | A.J. Allmendinger | 16.5 | 3.1% |
| 14 | Ty Gibbs | 17.2 | 2.6% |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 16.8 | 2.6% |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 16.7 | 2.5% |
| 17 | Alex Bowman | 16.7 | 2.0% |
| 18 | Casey Mears | 16.7 | 2.0% |
| 19 | Austin Cindric | 20.2 | 1.9% |
| 20 | Denny Hamlin | 16.7 | 1.8% |
| 21 | Bubba Wallace | 16.7 | 1.7% |
| 22 | Chase Briscoe | 16.7 | 1.4% |
| 23 | Todd Gilliland | 20.8 | 1.3% |
| 24 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21.4 | 1.2% |
| 25 | Connor Zilisch | 21.4 | 1.1% |
| 26 | Ryan Preece | 16.5 | 1.1% |
| 27 | Katherine Legge | 21.4 | 0.9% |
| 28 | Erik Jones | 21.4 | 0.9% |
| 29 | B.J. McLeod | 20.8 | 0.9% |
| 30 | Ty Dillon | 21.4 | 0.8% |
| 31 | Austin Dillon | 21.4 | 0.5% |
| 32 | Carson Hocevar | 21.4 | 0.3% |
| 33 | Riley Herbst | 25.7 | 0.0% |
| 34 | Josh Berry | 28.4 | 0.0% |
| 35 | Noah Gragson | 26.9 | 0.0% |
| 36 | Cole Custer | 25.7 | 0.0% |
| 37 | John Hunter Nemechek | 25.7 | 0.0% |
| 38 | Cody Ware | 28.5 | 0.0% |
| 39 | Zane Smith | 25.7 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24
(1/5 top-5 hits)
38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races
History at Sonoma Raceway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (8 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Toyota/Save Mart 350 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 2024 | Toyota/Save Mart 350 | Kyle Larson |
| 2023 | Toyota/Save Mart 350 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 2022 | Toyota/Save Mart 350 | Daniel Suarez |
| 2021 | Toyota/Save Mart 350 | Kyle Larson |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 198 |
| Kyle Larson | 116 |
| Shane van Gisbergen | 97 |
| Denny Hamlin | 54 |
| Chase Elliott | 52 |
Track Type Tendencies
Road course events at Sonoma Raceway favor a specific skillset — braking, corner entry, and road racing experience. Drivers with sports car or open-wheel backgrounds tend to overperform here.
Tire management and fuel strategy add an extra layer of complexity to race outcomes.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
50%+ top-5 rate at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership