Cup Series Preview Sunday, November 1, 2026

Xfinity 500

Martinsville Speedway

Laps 500 Distance 263 mi Type short Coverage NBC · 2:00 PM ET Stages 130 / 260 / 500

0.526

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Sunday, November 1, 2026

2:00 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 49 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 8 wins and a 9.9 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 17 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 1 win and a 12.8 average finish.
Kyle Larson has 24 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 1 win and a 14.3 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Martinsville Speedway from 1949-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Xfinity 500 on?

The Xfinity 500 airs on NBC on Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, broadcast from Martinsville Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The Xfinity 500 green flag is set for 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026, airing on NBC. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1672	23	1	P9 (2026)
2	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1650	28	2	P2 (2026)
3	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1633	21	2	P6 (2026)
4	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1616	29	1	P3 (2026)
5	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1615	13	1	P7 (2026)
6	Ty Gibbs		1577	8	0	P4 (2026)
7	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1560	22	2	P1 (2026)
8	William Byron	Prev Winner	1550	17	3	P5 (2026)
9	Ryan Preece		1541	14	0	P12 (2026)
10	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1541	29	2	P13 (2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Christopher Bell	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Kyle Larson	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	8.6	15.7%	52.8%	72.4%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	8.6	12.8%	49.1%	69.3%
6	Joey Logano	Favorite	9.9	11.7%	46.5%	67.7%
7	Chase Briscoe	Contender	10.3	9.7%	43.3%	65.5%
8	Tyler Reddick	Contender	10.3	8.4%	40.2%	63.6%
9	William Byron	Contender	10.8	7.3%	37.0%	61.2%
10	Ryan Preece	Contender	12.0	6.3%	35.1%	59.4%
11	Chase Elliott	Contender	12.0	5.0%	32.2%	57.6%
12	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.6	4.5%	30.2%	55.3%
13	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.6	3.9%	27.2%	52.3%
14	Austin Cindric	Contender	13.8	3.4%	24.9%	50.2%
15	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	13.8	3.4%	24.9%	50.2%
16	Ross Chastain	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	21.9%	46.3%
17	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.3%	18.3%	42.8%
18	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.1%	17.0%	41.5%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.0%	16.6%	41.0%
20	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.3%	12.9%	35.5%
21	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.9%	10.7%	32.6%
22	Josh Berry	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.8%	9.4%	29.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	8.1%	25.8%
24	Jimmie Johnson	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	7.9%	24.9%
25	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	8.1%	26.9%
26	Kevin Magnussen	Mid-Pack	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
27	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
28	Erik Jones	Dark Horse	18.3	0.4%	6.5%	22.3%
29	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.4%	19.1%
30	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	18.3	0.3%	5.7%	21.0%
31	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	21.0	0.2%	2.5%	13.1%
32	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.5%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	21.2	0.2%	2.3%	12.2%
34	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.0	0.2%	2.1%	9.7%
35	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%
36	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	23.1	0.1%	1.0%	6.7%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	24.9	0.1%	0.7%	6.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.9	0.1%	0.7%	5.5%
39	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	26.7	0.0%	0.4%	3.4%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	37.3	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

History at Martinsville Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (29 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	Cook Out 400	Chase Elliott	+0.565	Hendrick Motorsports	84
2025	Xfinity 500	William Byron	—	Hendrick Motorsports	304
2025	Cook Out 400	Denny Hamlin	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	274
2024	Xfinity 500	Ryan Blaney	—	Team Penske	32
2024	Cook Out 400	William Byron	—	Hendrick Motorsports	88

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Denny Hamlin	1918
Chase Elliott	1359
Jimmie Johnson	1256
Joey Logano	1220
Martin Truex, Jr.	1103

Track Type Tendencies

short

Martinsville Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays

Denny Hamlin 1918 laps led

Chase Elliott 1359 laps led

Jimmie Johnson 1256 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays

Ryan Blaney 8.05 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks

Chase Briscoe 14.64 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership

Explore More

Track History