Cup Series Preview Sunday, November 1, 2026

Xfinity 500

Martinsville Speedway

Laps 500 Distance 263 mi Type short Coverage NBC · 2:00 PM ET Stages 130 / 260 / 500

0.526

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Sunday, November 1, 2026

2:00 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 49 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 8 wins and a 9.9 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 26 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 2 wins and a 8.0 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 17 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 1 win and a 12.8 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Martinsville Speedway from 1949-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Xfinity 500 on?

The Xfinity 500 airs on NBC on Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, broadcast from Martinsville Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The Xfinity 500 green flag is set for 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026, airing on NBC. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1656	23	1	P9(2026)
2	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1646	21	2	P6(2026)
3	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1642	28	2	P2(2026)
4	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1605	29	1	P3(2026)
5	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1595	13	1	P7(2026)
6	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1582	22	2	P1(2026)
7	William Byron	Prev Winner	1560	17	3	P5(2026)
8	Ty Gibbs		1557	8	0	P4(2026)
9	Chase Briscoe		1556	11	0	P14(2026)
10	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1535	29	2	P13(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Christopher Bell	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	8.6	15.7%	52.8%	72.5%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	8.6	12.8%	49.1%	69.3%
6	Chase Elliott	Favorite	9.9	11.6%	46.4%	67.5%
7	Joey Logano	Contender	10.3	9.7%	43.3%	65.5%
8	Kyle Larson	Contender	10.3	8.4%	40.2%	63.6%
9	William Byron	Contender	10.8	7.0%	36.5%	60.8%
10	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.0	6.2%	35.0%	59.3%
11	Tyler Reddick	Contender	12.0	5.0%	31.9%	57.6%
12	Ryan Preece	Contender	12.6	4.4%	30.2%	55.1%
13	Ross Chastain	Contender	12.6	3.5%	26.4%	51.6%
14	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.6	3.5%	25.0%	50.4%
15	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	13.8	3.1%	23.6%	49.1%
16	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.8%	20.8%	45.5%
17	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.3%	18.0%	42.8%
18	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	14.8%	38.0%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	14.8%	38.0%
20	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.1%	12.5%	35.6%
21	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.9%	11.6%	33.1%
22	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.6%	8.6%	27.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.6%	8.2%	26.3%
24	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	7.9%	24.8%
25	Jimmie Johnson	Mid-Pack	18.0	0.4%	7.0%	23.2%
26	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	19.0	0.4%	4.8%	19.8%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	18.3	0.4%	6.3%	21.6%
28	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.0%
29	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
30	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	20.4	0.3%	2.6%	14.2%
32	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.5%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.5%
34	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.9%	8.8%
35	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	21.7	0.1%	2.4%	11.0%
36	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.1	0.1%	1.2%	7.6%
37	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.4%	7.8%
38	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.8%	8.8%
39	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.9	0.1%	0.7%	6.1%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	37.3	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12

(1/5 top-5 hits)

37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races

History at Martinsville Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (29 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	Cook Out 400	Chase Elliott	+0.565	Hendrick Motorsports	84
2025	Xfinity 500	William Byron	—	Hendrick Motorsports	304
2025	Cook Out 400	Denny Hamlin	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	274
2024	Xfinity 500	Ryan Blaney	—	Team Penske	32
2024	Cook Out 400	William Byron	—	Hendrick Motorsports	88

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Denny Hamlin	1918
Chase Elliott	1359
Jimmie Johnson	1256
Joey Logano	1220
Martin Truex, Jr.	1103

Track Type Tendencies

short

Martinsville Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays

Denny Hamlin 1918 laps led

Chase Elliott 1359 laps led

Jimmie Johnson 1256 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays

Ryan Blaney 8.05 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks

Chase Briscoe 14.64 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership

Explore More

Track History