Cup Series Preview Sunday, November 1, 2026

Xfinity 500

Martinsville Speedway

Laps 500 Distance 263 mi Type short Coverage NBC · 2:00 PM ET Stages 130 / 260 / 500

0.526

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Sunday, November 1, 2026

2:00 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 47 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 8 wins and a 9.2 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 30 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 2 wins and a 11.7 average finish.
Chase Elliott has 26 starts at Martinsville Speedway with 3 wins and a 10.2 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Martinsville Speedway from 1949-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Darrell Waltrip has won 11 times at Martinsville Speedway with a 12.4 average finish.

See Darrell Waltrip's full stats

LAST TIME HERE

The last Cup race at Martinsville Speedway was the 2026 Cook Out 400 (chaos score: 36.6).

Track history

Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Xfinity 500 on?

The Xfinity 500 airs on NBC on Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, broadcast from Martinsville Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The Xfinity 500 green flag is set for 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026, airing on NBC. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1656	21	1	P9(2026)
2	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1648	25	2	P6(2026)
3	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1623	26	2	P2(2026)
4	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1594	12	1	P7(2026)
5	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1577	30	1	P3(2026)
6	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1575	22	2	P1(2026)
7	William Byron	Prev Winner	1550	15	3	P5(2026)
8	Ty Gibbs		1544	7	0	P4(2026)
9	Ross Chastain		1539	12	0	P16(2026)
10	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1536	28	2	P13(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Chase Elliott	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Kyle Larson	Favorite	8.6	13.2%	49.6%	69.7%
5	Christopher Bell	Favorite	8.6	13.2%	49.6%	69.7%
6	Tyler Reddick	Favorite	9.9	11.5%	46.2%	67.5%
7	Chris Buescher	Contender	10.3	9.5%	42.9%	65.3%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.3	8.2%	38.9%	62.3%
9	Ryan Preece	Contender	10.8	7.0%	36.4%	60.8%
10	Brad Keselowski	Contender	12.0	5.5%	33.9%	58.6%
11	Joey Logano	Contender	12.1	4.9%	31.2%	56.4%
12	Ty Gibbs	Contender	12.6	4.3%	29.9%	54.7%
13	Chase Briscoe	Contender	12.6	3.5%	26.2%	51.2%
14	Ross Chastain	Contender	13.8	3.4%	24.9%	50.2%
15	Bubba Wallace	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.7%	20.6%	45.7%
16	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.7%	20.6%	45.7%
17	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.4%	17.8%	42.8%
18	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.1%	16.7%	41.1%
19	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	15.2%	38.3%
20	Kyle Busch	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.3%	13.3%	35.5%
21	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.8%	10.2%	30.9%
22	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.8%	10.8%	32.6%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.7%	9.1%	28.8%
24	Casey Mears	Mid-Pack	18.0	0.6%	7.3%	23.8%
25	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	8.1%	25.8%
26	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.4%	6.4%	21.9%
27	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
28	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
30	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	18.3	0.3%	5.7%	21.0%
31	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	20.3	0.2%	2.8%	14.8%
32	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	21.2	0.2%	2.4%	11.9%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.3%
34	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.5%	8.1%
35	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.9%	8.6%
36	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.6%	8.4%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	24.3	0.1%	0.8%	6.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	25.6	0.0%	0.6%	4.3%
39	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	29.8	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

History at Martinsville Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (29 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	Cook Out 400	Chase Elliott	+0.565	Hendrick Motorsports	84
2025	Xfinity 500	William Byron	—	Hendrick Motorsports	304
2025	Cook Out 400	Denny Hamlin	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	274
2024	Xfinity 500	Ryan Blaney	—	Team Penske	32
2024	Cook Out 400	William Byron	—	Hendrick Motorsports	88

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Denny Hamlin	1918
Chase Elliott	1359
Jimmie Johnson	1256
Joey Logano	1220
Martin Truex, Jr.	1103

Track Type Tendencies

short

Martinsville Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays

Denny Hamlin 1918 laps led

Chase Elliott 1359 laps led

Jimmie Johnson 1256 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays

Denny Hamlin 10.88 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks

Ross Chastain 12.42 avg, 0 wins

Todd Gilliland 13.00 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership

Explore More

Track History