Lucas Oil 150
Phoenix Raceway — November 7, 2014
Erik Jones
Winner
126
Laps
34
Entries
2
Leaders
Erik Jones won the 2014 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway on November 7, 2014, leading 114 of 126 laps. Matt Crafton finished second; Cole Custer rounded out the podium. The race featured 2 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Erik Jones |
| 2 | 2 | — | Matt Crafton |
| 3 | 19 | +16 | Cole Custer |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Ben Rhodes |
| 6 | 9 | +3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 7 | 8 | +1 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 8 | 12 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 9 | 14 | +5 | Johnny Sauter |
| 10 | 7 | -3 | Tyler Reddick |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Ben Kennedy |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Brandon Jones |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Mason Mingus |
| 14 | 20 | +6 | Bryan Silas |
| 15 | 25 | +10 | Korbin Forrister |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | Brennan Newberry |
| 17 | 15 | -2 | Gray Gaulding |
| 18 | 23 | +5 | Tyler Young |
| 19 | 10 | -9 | Timothy Peters |
| 20 | 21 | +1 | Matt Tifft |
| 21 | 29 | +8 | Tyler Tanner |
| 22 | 31 | +9 | Jody Knowles |
| 23 | 32 | +9 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 24 | 30 | +6 | Jordan Anderson |
| 25 | 13 | -12 | Jeb Burton |
| 26 | 24 | -2 | German Quiroga |
| 27 | 34 | +7 | Wendell Chavous |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Norm Benning |
| 29 | 28 | -1 | Akinori Ogata |
| 30 | 5 | -25 | Joey Coulter |
| 31 | 6 | -25 | Spencer Gallagher |
| 32 | 27 | -5 | B.J. McLeod |
| 33 | 22 | -11 | John Wes Townley |
| 34 | 26 | -8 | Justin Jennings |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 1 | +16.7 |
| 3 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 3 | +20.0 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 6 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 6 | +8.0 |
| 7 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 7 | +13.1 |
| 8 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 8 | +9.0 |
| 10 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 32 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 32 | -6.4 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Erik Jones: has 18 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 15.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P23. Track history: 15 starts, 16.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2014 Lucas Oil 150?
Erik Jones won the 2014 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Where was the 2014 Lucas Oil 150 held?
The 2014 Lucas Oil 150 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 7, 2014.