Cup Series Preview Sunday, August 23, 2026

Dollar Tree 301

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Laps 301 Distance 318 mi Type short Coverage USA · 3:00 PM ET Stages 70 / 185 / 301

1.058

asphalt

Surface

Green Flag In

—

Days

—

Hrs

—

Min

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 34 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with 3 wins and a 9.3 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 14 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with 1 win and a 13.3 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 12 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with 7 wins and a 6.2 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at New Hampshire Motor Speedway from 1949-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Dollar Tree 301 on?

The Dollar Tree 301 airs on USA on Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The Dollar Tree 301 green flag is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, August 23, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson		1656	15	0	P7(2025)
2	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1646	13	1	P1(2025)
3	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1642	20	2	P11(2025)
4	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1605	20	1	P4(2025)
5	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1595	6	2	P6(2025)
6	Chase Elliott		1582	12	0	P5(2025)
7	William Byron		1560	8	0	P3(2025)
8	Ty Gibbs		1557	3	0	P35(2025)
9	Chase Briscoe		1556	5	0	P10(2025)
10	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1535	20	2	P23(2025)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Christopher Bell	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	8.6	15.7%	52.8%	72.5%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	8.6	12.8%	49.1%	69.3%
6	Chase Elliott	Favorite	9.9	11.6%	46.4%	67.5%
7	Joey Logano	Contender	10.3	9.7%	43.3%	65.5%
8	Kyle Larson	Contender	10.3	8.4%	40.2%	63.6%
9	William Byron	Contender	10.8	7.0%	36.5%	60.8%
10	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.0	6.2%	35.0%	59.3%
11	Tyler Reddick	Contender	12.0	5.0%	31.9%	57.6%
12	Ryan Preece	Contender	12.6	4.4%	30.2%	55.1%
13	Ross Chastain	Contender	12.6	3.5%	26.4%	51.6%
14	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.6	3.5%	25.0%	50.4%
15	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	13.8	3.1%	23.6%	49.1%
16	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.8%	20.8%	45.5%
17	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.3%	18.0%	42.8%
18	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	14.8%	38.0%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	14.8%	38.0%
20	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.1%	12.5%	35.6%
21	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.9%	11.6%	33.1%
22	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.6%	8.6%	27.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.6%	8.2%	26.3%
24	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	7.9%	24.8%
25	Jimmie Johnson	Mid-Pack	18.0	0.4%	7.0%	23.2%
26	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	19.0	0.4%	4.8%	19.8%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	18.3	0.4%	6.3%	21.6%
28	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
29	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.0%
30	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	20.4	0.3%	2.6%	14.2%
32	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.5%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.5%
34	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.9%	8.8%
35	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	21.7	0.1%	2.4%	11.0%
36	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.1	0.1%	1.2%	7.6%
37	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.4%	7.8%
38	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.8%	8.8%
39	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.9	0.1%	0.7%	6.1%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	37.3	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12

(1/5 top-5 hits)

37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races

History at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (20 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2025	Mobil 1 301	Ryan Blaney	—	Team Penske	116
2024	USA Today 301	Christopher Bell	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	149
2023	Crayon 301	Martin Truex, Jr.	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	254
2022	Ambetter 301	Christopher Bell	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	42
2021	Foxwoods Resort Casino 301	Aric Almirola	—	McAnally-Hilgemann Racing	25

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Martin Truex, Jr.	1120
Kyle Busch	909
Denny Hamlin	724
Brad Keselowski	595
Joey Logano	264

Track Type Tendencies

short

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays

Martin Truex, Jr. 1120 laps led

Kyle Busch 909 laps led

Denny Hamlin 724 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays

Josh Berry 2.50 avg

Christopher Bell 11.17 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks

Josh Berry 2.50 avg, 0 wins

Kyle Larson 10.93 avg, 0 wins

Tyler Reddick 12.67 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership

Explore More

Track History