Hollywood Casino 400
Kansas SpeedwayYour watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin has 40 starts at Kansas Speedway with 5 wins and a 12.4 average finish.
- Chase Briscoe has 17 starts at Kansas Speedway with 1 win and a 15.0 average finish.
- Ryan Blaney has 28 starts at Kansas Speedway with a 14.3 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Kansas Speedway from 1949-2026.
The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the Hollywood Casino 400 on?
The Hollywood Casino 400 airs on USA on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Kansas Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?
The Hollywood Casino 400 green flag is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 1679 | P4 |
| 2 | Chase Briscoe | 1605 | P3 |
| 3 | Chris Buescher | 1579 | P10 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 1568 | P24 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 1560 | P8 |
| 6 | Christopher Bell | 1559 | P20 |
| 7 | William Byron | 1555 | P7 |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick | 1544 | P1 |
| 9 | Bubba Wallace | 1544 | P5 |
| 10 | Daniel Suarez | 1526 | P19 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin Best in Field | 6.2 | 18.2% |
| 2 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 17.8% |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 16.3% |
| 4 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 15.4% |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 12.8% |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 11.0% |
| 7 | Ty Gibbs | 10.7 | 9.9% |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.7 | 8.7% |
| 9 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 7.7% |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 6.7% |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 5.5% |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 5.2% |
| 13 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 4.5% |
| 14 | Carson Hocevar | 13.2 | 3.9% |
| 15 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 3.6% |
| 16 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 3.1% |
| 17 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 2.8% |
| 18 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 2.2% |
| 19 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 2.2% |
| 20 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 1.7% |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 1.3% |
| 22 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 0.9% |
| 23 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 0.7% |
| 24 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 0.7% |
| 25 | Zane Smith | 18.3 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Todd Gilliland | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 27 | Casey Mears | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 28 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 0.4% |
| 29 | Riley Herbst | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 30 | Kevin Magnussen | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 32 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 33 | Josh Berry | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 34 | Noah Gragson | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Katherine Legge | 22.2 | 0.1% |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 0.1% |
| 39 | Connor Zilisch | 26.1 | 0.0% |
| 40 | Cody Ware | 57.0 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12
(1/5 top-5 hits)
37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races
History at Kansas Speedway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (29 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | AdventHealth 400 | Tyler Reddick |
| 2025 | Hollywood Casino 400 | Chase Elliott |
| 2025 | AdventHealth 400 | Kyle Larson |
| 2024 | Hollywood Casino 400 | Ross Chastain |
| 2024 | AdventHealth 400 | Kyle Larson |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 1003 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 879 |
| Denny Hamlin | 774 |
| Joey Logano | 514 |
| Kyle Busch | 379 |
Track Type Tendencies
Intermediate tracks like Kansas Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.
Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
50%+ top-5 rate at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership