Cup Series Preview Sunday, September 27, 2026

Hollywood Casino 400

Kansas Speedway

Laps 267 Distance 400 mi Type intermediate Coverage USA · 3:00 PM ET Stages 80 / 165 / 267

1.5

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Sunday, September 27, 2026

3:00 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Tyler Reddick has 21 starts at Kansas Speedway with 2 wins and a 14.2 average finish.
Chase Elliott has 22 starts at Kansas Speedway with 2 wins and a 9.4 average finish.
Denny Hamlin has 42 starts at Kansas Speedway with 5 wins and a 12.9 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Kansas Speedway from 1949-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Denny Hamlin has won 5 times at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 average finish.

See Denny Hamlin's full stats

LAST TIME HERE

The last Cup race at Kansas Speedway was the 2026 AdventHealth 400 (chaos score: 36.0).

Track history

Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Hollywood Casino 400 on?

The Hollywood Casino 400 airs on USA on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Kansas Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The Hollywood Casino 400 green flag is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1624	30	4	P4(2026)
2	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1617	20	2	P8(2026)
3	Tyler Reddick	Prev Winner	1597	16	2	P1(2026)
4	Chris Buescher		1591	18	0	P10(2026)
5	Chase Briscoe		1579	8	0	P3(2026)
6	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1570	31	1	P6(2026)
7	William Byron		1561	16	0	P7(2026)
8	Ryan Preece		1544	6	0	P11(2026)
9	Bubba Wallace	Prev Winner	1543	16	1	P5(2026)
10	Christopher Bell		1539	13	0	P20(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Tyler Reddick Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Chase Elliott	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Denny Hamlin	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chris Buescher	Favorite	9.2	15.4%	54.1%	72.9%
5	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	9.2	12.7%	49.0%	69.0%
6	Ryan Preece	Favorite	10.1	10.9%	46.4%	67.2%
7	Christopher Bell	Contender	10.7	9.6%	43.6%	65.3%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.7	8.4%	40.3%	62.2%
9	Brad Keselowski	Contender	11.2	7.6%	38.0%	60.3%
10	Chase Briscoe	Contender	11.9	6.4%	35.5%	58.5%
11	Kyle Larson	Contender	12.7	5.2%	32.4%	56.7%
12	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.7	5.1%	30.9%	55.5%
13	Carson Hocevar	Contender	13.1	4.3%	28.1%	53.2%
14	Ross Chastain	Contender	13.3	3.8%	25.9%	50.5%
15	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	13.5	3.3%	24.0%	49.5%
16	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	21.8%	47.6%
17	Ty Gibbs	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.0%	20.3%	45.4%
18	Joey Logano	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.7%	18.8%	43.9%
19	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.9%	41.0%
20	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	16.7	1.7%	13.5%	36.0%
21	Casey Mears	Mid-Pack	16.9	1.4%	12.6%	34.6%
22	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.2%	11.6%	32.5%
23	Kyle Busch	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.1%	10.9%	31.6%
24	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.3%	30.3%
25	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.5%	27.2%
26	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.5%	25.0%
27	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	19.1	0.5%	6.7%	22.9%
28	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	19.1	0.5%	6.5%	22.5%
29	Todd Gilliland	Dark Horse	19.1	0.4%	5.8%	21.1%
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.5%
31	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	22.9	0.2%	2.1%	10.8%
32	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	11.2%
33	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.2%
34	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	1.9%	11.2%
35	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.3%	12.7%
36	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.5%	13.9%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.4	0.1%	1.5%	8.7%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.8	0.0%	0.9%	6.7%
39	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	56.1	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

History at Kansas Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (29 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	AdventHealth 400	Tyler Reddick	+0.118	23XI Racing	10
2025	Hollywood Casino 400	Chase Elliott	—	Hendrick Motorsports	24
2025	AdventHealth 400	Kyle Larson	—	Hendrick Motorsports	221
2024	Hollywood Casino 400	Ross Chastain	—	Trackhouse Racing	52
2024	AdventHealth 400	Kyle Larson	—	Hendrick Motorsports	64

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Kyle Larson	1003
Martin Truex, Jr.	879
Denny Hamlin	774
Joey Logano	514
Kyle Busch	379

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Kansas Speedway reward the complete package — car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays

Kyle Larson 1003 laps led

Martin Truex, Jr. 879 laps led

Denny Hamlin 774 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Value Picks

William Byron 12.38 avg, 0 wins

Ryan Preece 13.17 avg, 0 wins

Christopher Bell 13.23 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership

Explore More

Track History