South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor SpeedwayThe South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of the first Chase races of the 2026 Cup season, and its 1.5-mile intermediate layout makes it a critical early test in the 10-race championship run. Las Vegas joined the Cup schedule in 1998 and added a second date in 2018, and the fall race has quickly become one of the most important stops on the playoff calendar. The track's 20-degree banking in the turns and relatively narrow racing surface create a tire-wear profile where grip drops off significantly over a 40-lap run, rewarding teams that time their pit windows perfectly and can execute long runs without falling off the preferred groove. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson have traded dominance at Vegas in recent years, and Joey Logano's 2022 South Point 400 win was a springboard to his championship run that fall. With 267 laps split across three stages, the race becomes a strategy puzzle as teams balance stage-point accumulation against track position for the closing run. Under the 2026 Chase format, every point matters, and a strong Vegas finish can swing the cumulative standings significantly heading into the middle third of the 10-race Chase.
Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin has 35 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 3 wins and a 12.1 average finish.
- Christopher Bell has 21 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 11.5 average finish.
- Ryan Blaney has 24 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 14.0 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Las Vegas Motor Speedway from 1949-2026.
The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the South Point 400 on?
The South Point 400 airs on USA on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET, broadcast from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?
The South Point 400 green flag is set for 5:30 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | | P1 |
| 2 | Chase Briscoe | | P8 |
| 3 | Christopher Bell | | P4 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | | P16 |
| 5 | Bubba Wallace | | P9 |
| 6 | William Byron | | P3 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | | P2 |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick | | P13 |
| 9 | Chris Buescher | | P6 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | | P7 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin Best in Field | 6.2 | 18.2% |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 7.8 | 17.8% |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 16.3% |
| 4 | Chase Briscoe | 9.2 | 15.5% |
| 5 | Ty Gibbs | 9.2 | 12.8% |
| 6 | Kyle Larson | 10.1 | 11.1% |
| 7 | Bubba Wallace | 10.7 | 9.9% |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick | 10.7 | 8.8% |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 11.2 | 7.4% |
| 10 | William Byron | 11.2 | 7.4% |
| 11 | Chase Elliott | 11.9 | 5.5% |
| 12 | Chris Buescher | 12.7 | 5.1% |
| 13 | Ryan Preece | 13.1 | 4.7% |
| 14 | Daniel Suarez | 13.2 | 4.0% |
| 15 | Austin Cindric | 13.3 | 3.6% |
| 16 | Carson Hocevar | 14.0 | 3.1% |
| 17 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 3.1% |
| 18 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 2.4% |
| 19 | Alex Bowman | 15.4 | 2.2% |
| 20 | Erik Jones | 15.4 | 1.9% |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 1.2% |
| 22 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 0.9% |
| 23 | Todd Gilliland | 18.3 | 0.8% |
| 24 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 0.7% |
| 25 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Shane van Gisbergen | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 27 | Casey Mears | 19.1 | 0.4% |
| 28 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 0.4% |
| 29 | Kevin Magnussen | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 30 | Josh Berry | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Zane Smith | 20.9 | 0.2% |
| 32 | Noah Gragson | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 33 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 34 | Riley Herbst | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Katherine Legge | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Ty Dillon | 23.9 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Cole Custer | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 0.0% |
| 39 | Connor Zilisch | 25.7 | 0.0% |
| 40 | Cody Ware | 58.0 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9
(0/5 top-5 hits)
35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races
History at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (23 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube | Denny Hamlin |
| 2025 | South Point 400 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2025 | Pennzoil 400 | Josh Berry |
| 2024 | South Point 400 | Joey Logano |
| 2024 | Pennzoil 400 | Kyle Larson |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 881 |
| Joey Logano | 587 |
| Denny Hamlin | 555 |
| Brad Keselowski | 365 |
| William Byron | 363 |
Track Type Tendencies
Intermediate tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.
Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership