Aaron's 312 at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — January 1, 2009

David Ragan

Winner

120

Laps

Entries

Leaders

David Ragan won the 2009 Aaron's 312 at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on January 1, 2009, leading 1 of 120 laps. Ryan Newman finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 15 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2009

Winner

David Ragan

Leaders

15 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	14	+13	David Ragan	Roush Fenway Racing		120	—	Running	1	190
2	1	-1	Ryan Newman	Kevin Harvick Inc.		120	—	Running	21	175
3	16	+13	Joey Logano	Joe Gibbs Racing		120	—	Running	1	170
4	23	+19	Tony Raines	Front Row Motorsports		120	—	Running	—	160
5	12	+7	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	JR Motorsports		120	—	Running	8	160
6	4	-2	Jason Leffler	Braun Racing		120	—	Running	—	150
7	21	+14	Jason Keller	Baker Curb Racing		120	—	Running	—	146
8	8	—	Scott Lagasse Jr.	CJM Racing		120	—	Running	4	147
9	10	+1	Brad Keselowski	JR Motorsports		120	—	Running	19	143
10	9	-1	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing		120	—	Running	31	144
11	19	+8	Joe Nemechek	NEMCO Motorsports		120	—	Running	—	130
12	20	+8	Kerry Earnhardt	Stanton Barrett Racing		120	—	Running	—	127
13	6	-7	Carl Edwards	Roush Fenway Racing		120	—	Running	20	129
14	17	+3	Brian Keselowski	Whitney Motorsports	Dodge	120	—	Running	1	126
15	41	+26	Michael McDowell	JTG Daugherty Racing		120	—	Running	—	118
16	39	+23	Robert Richardson Jr.	R3 Motorsports		120	—	Running	—	115
17	30	+13	Kenny Wallace	Jay Robinson Racing		120	—	Running	—	112
18	31	+13	John Wes Townley	Jay Robinson Racing		120	—	Running	—	109
19	11	-8	D.J. Kennington	MacDonald Motorsports	Dodge	120	—	Running	—	106
20	2	-18	Brian Vickers	Braun Racing		120	—	Running	2	108
21	22	+1	Michael Annett	Germain Racing		120	—	Running	—	100
22	27	+5	Kertus Davis	Jay Robinson Racing		120	—	Running	—	97
23	34	+11	Morgan Shepherd	Faith Motorsports (Shepherd)		120	—	Running	3	99
24	37	+13	David Green	Fitz Motorsports		120	—	Running	—	91
25	36	+11	Eric McClure	Team Rensi Motorsports		120	—	Running	—	88
26	32	+6	Johnny Borneman III	Borneman Motorsports		120	—	Running	—	85
27	26	-1	Shelby Howard	ML Motorsports		120	—	Running	—	82
28	33	+5	Donnie Neuenberger	Means Motorsports		119	—	Running	—	79
29	24	-5	David Reutimann	Braun Racing		118	—	Running	—	76
30	42	+12	Brandon Whitt	Specialty Racing		118	—	Running	—	73
31	7	-24	Clint Bowyer	Richard Childress Racing		117	—	Running	2	75
32	28	-4	Justin Allgaier	Penske Racing	Dodge	114	—	DNF - Crash	—	67
33	5	-28	Bobby Gerhart	Bob Schacht Motorsports		114	—	DNF - Crash	—	64
34	35	+1	Steve Wallace	Rusty Wallace Racing		109	—	DNF	—	61
35	3	-32	Matt Kenseth	Roush Fenway Racing		104	—	DNF - Crash	4	63
36	43	+7	Jeff Green	Day Enterprises		104	—	Running	—	55
37	38	+1	Danny O'Quinn Jr.	JD Motorsports		86	—	DNF - Engine	—	52
38	18	-20	Brendan Gaughan	Rusty Wallace Racing		73	—	DNF	—	49
39	25	-14	Mike Wallace	JD Motorsports		58	—	DNF - Engine	1	51
40	13	-27	Michael Waltrip	Michael Waltrip Racing		52	—	DNF - Crash	2	48
41	40	-1	Mike Bliss	Phoenix Racing		41	—	DNF	—	40
42	15	-27	Kenny Hendrick	Chip Ganassi Racing	Dodge	19	—	DNF	—	37
43	29	-14	Mark Green	JD Motorsports		2	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 5 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Joey Logano	20.5	3	+17.5	Moderate
9	Brad Keselowski	16.0	9	+7.0	Coinflip
10	Kyle Busch	15.1	10	+5.1	Coinflip
15	Michael McDowell	20.0	15	+5.0	Coinflip
32	Justin Allgaier	21.1	32	-10.9	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

David Ragan: has 29 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 42 starts, 18.0 avg finish.

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Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2009 Aaron's 312 at Talladega?

David Ragan won the 2009 Aaron's 312 at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Roush Fenway Racing.

Where was the 2009 Aaron's 312 at Talladega held?

The 2009 Aaron's 312 at Talladega was held at Talladega Superspeedway on January 1, 2009.