CARFAX 250 at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway — January 1, 2009
Brad Keselowski
Winner
125
Laps
43
Entries
6
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2009 CARFAX 250 at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on January 1, 2009, leading 3 of 125 laps. Brian Vickers finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Season
2009
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +12 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Brian Vickers |
| 3 | 3 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | David Ragan |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Ryan Newman |
| 7 | 28 | +21 | Justin Allgaier |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | Greg Biffle |
| 9 | 4 | -5 | Jeff Burton |
| 10 | 23 | +13 | Paul Menard |
| 11 | 22 | +11 | Jason Leffler |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Reed Sorenson |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Michael Annett |
| 14 | 36 | +22 | David Reutimann |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Steve Wallace |
| 16 | 19 | +3 | Justin Lofton |
| 17 | 24 | +7 | Michael McDowell |
| 18 | 39 | +21 | Shelby Howard |
| 19 | 37 | +18 | Austin Dillon |
| 20 | 12 | -8 | Jason Keller |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | J.C. Stout |
| 22 | 20 | -2 | Kenny Wallace |
| 23 | 5 | -18 | Brad Coleman |
| 24 | 34 | +10 | Robert Richardson Jr. |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | Jeremy Clements |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Matt Carter |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | Mike Bliss |
| 28 | 40 | +12 | Eric McClure |
| 29 | 15 | -14 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 30 | 2 | -28 | Trevor Bayne |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Danny O'Quinn Jr. |
| 32 | 8 | -24 | Denny Hamlin |
| 33 | 41 | +8 | Tony Raines |
| 34 | 43 | +9 | Mike Wallace |
| 35 | 42 | +7 | Scott Wimmer |
| 36 | 16 | -20 | Mark Green |
| 37 | 38 | +1 | Chase Miller |
| 38 | 26 | -12 | Terry Cook |
| 39 | 32 | -7 | Johnny Chapman |
| 40 | 7 | -33 | Carl Edwards |
| 41 | 31 | -10 | Kevin Hamlin |
| 42 | 30 | -12 | Dennis Setzer |
| 43 | 25 | -18 | Willie Allen |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 1 | +10.2 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 3 | +14.0 |
| 7 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 7 | +11.3 |
| 17 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 17 | 0.0 |
| 19 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 19 | -1.9 |
| 32 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 32 | -23.8 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 36 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 12.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P32 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P17. Track history: 55 starts, 12.2 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2009 CARFAX 250 at Michigan?
Brad Keselowski won the 2009 CARFAX 250 at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway driving for JR Motorsports.
Where was the 2009 CARFAX 250 at Michigan held?
The 2009 CARFAX 250 at Michigan was held at Michigan International Speedway on January 1, 2009.