NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami
Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 17, 2012
Regan Smith
Winner
200
Laps
43
Entries
10
Leaders
Regan Smith won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 17, 2012, leading 24 of 200 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Brendan Gaughan rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Track
Season
2012
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | Regan Smith |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 16 | +13 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Austin Dillon |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 7 | 7 | — | Brian Scott |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 9 | 2 | -7 | Elliott Sadler |
| 10 | 8 | -2 | Cole Whitt |
| 11 | 6 | -5 | Justin Allgaier |
| 12 | 32 | +20 | Michael Annett |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Danica Patrick |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | Joey Coulter |
| 15 | 17 | +2 | Kenny Wallace |
| 16 | 5 | -11 | Joey Logano |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | Brad Sweet |
| 18 | 25 | +7 | Joe Nemechek |
| 19 | 24 | +5 | Mike Bliss |
| 20 | 13 | -7 | Scott Lagasse Jr. |
| 21 | 22 | +1 | Kevin Swindell |
| 22 | 23 | +1 | Jeremy Clements |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | David Starr |
| 25 | 19 | -6 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 26 | 34 | +8 | Mike Wallace |
| 27 | 30 | +3 | Eric McClure |
| 28 | 21 | -7 | Andrew Ranger |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Jason Bowles |
| 30 | 26 | -4 | Hal Martin |
| 31 | 42 | +11 | Danny Efland |
| 32 | 33 | +1 | Joey Gase |
| 33 | 41 | +8 | Robert Richardson Jr. |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Johanna Long |
| 35 | 38 | +3 | Erik Darnell |
| 36 | 27 | -9 | John Blankenship |
| 37 | 39 | +2 | Juan Carlos Blum |
| 38 | 12 | -26 | Ryan Truex |
| 39 | 9 | -30 | Blake Koch |
| 40 | 43 | +3 | Jeff Green |
| 41 | 29 | -12 | Chase Miller |
| 42 | 36 | -6 | Josh Wise |
| 43 | 40 | -3 | Dexter Stacey |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 2 | +15.0 |
| 5 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 5 | +12.1 |
| 6 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 6 | +13.9 |
| 8 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 8 | +1.2 |
| 11 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 11 | +7.3 |
| 16 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 16 | -1.3 |
| 24 | David Starr | 20.9 | 24 | -3.1 |
| 32 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 32 | -8.6 |
| 38 | Ryan Truex | 15.4 | 38 | -22.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Regan Smith: has 16 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 20.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 16 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish, finishing P8 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 38 starts, 12.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami?
Regan Smith won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami held?
The 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 17, 2012.