NASCAR Nationwide Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway — March 17, 2012
Elliott Sadler
Winner
300
Laps
43
Entries
5
Leaders
Elliott Sadler won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 17, 2012, leading 36 of 300 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Track
Season
2012
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Elliott Sadler |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Kasey Kahne |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 16 | +11 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Justin Allgaier |
| 8 | 2 | -6 | Trevor Bayne |
| 9 | 6 | -3 | Kevin Harvick |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Ryan Truex |
| 11 | 21 | +10 | Michael Annett |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 23 | +10 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | James Buescher |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Mike Bliss |
| 16 | 14 | -2 | Cole Whitt |
| 17 | 8 | -9 | Kyle Busch |
| 18 | 18 | — | Tayler Malsam |
| 19 | 27 | +8 | Danica Patrick |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | Jeremy Clements |
| 21 | 29 | +8 | Erik Darnell |
| 22 | 36 | +14 | Jamie Dick |
| 23 | 37 | +14 | Mike Wallace |
| 24 | 31 | +7 | Benny Gordon |
| 25 | 34 | +9 | Jason Bowles |
| 26 | 32 | +6 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 27 | 40 | +13 | Eric McClure |
| 28 | 20 | -8 | Kyle Fowler |
| 29 | 24 | -5 | Johanna Long |
| 30 | 30 | — | Joe Nemechek |
| 31 | 42 | +11 | Kevin Lepage |
| 32 | 41 | +9 | Brad Teague |
| 33 | 17 | -16 | Kenny Wallace |
| 34 | 33 | -1 | T.J. Bell |
| 35 | 5 | -30 | Brian Scott |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Joey Gase |
| 37 | 39 | +2 | Tim Schendel |
| 38 | 19 | -19 | Blake Koch |
| 39 | 43 | +4 | J.J. Yeley |
| 40 | 26 | -14 | Chase Miller |
| 41 | 22 | -19 | Scott Speed |
| 42 | 28 | -14 | Jeff Green |
| 43 | 35 | -8 | Josh Wise |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.8 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 3 | +9.0 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 4 | +8.1 |
| 6 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 6 | +14.1 |
| 7 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 7 | +10.7 |
| 10 | Ryan Truex | 15.6 | 10 | +5.6 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 12 | +5.0 |
| 17 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 17 | -1.4 |
| 36 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 36 | -14.0 |
| 39 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 39 | -10.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Elliott Sadler: has 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 19.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Brad Keselowski: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 14.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Bristol?
Elliott Sadler won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Bristol held?
The 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Bristol was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 17, 2012.