Lucas Oil 150
Phoenix Raceway — January 1, 2013
Erik Jones
Winner
150
Laps
36
Entries
3
Leaders
Erik Jones won the 2013 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway on January 1, 2013, leading 84 of 150 laps. Ross Chastain finished second; Brendan Gaughan rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Erik Jones |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Ross Chastain |
| 3 | 3 | — | Brendan Gaughan |
| 4 | 12 | +8 | Ty Dillon |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Matt Crafton |
| 6 | 6 | — | Cale Gale |
| 7 | 26 | +19 | Ryan Blaney |
| 8 | 7 | -1 | Johnny Sauter |
| 9 | 4 | -5 | James Buescher |
| 10 | 16 | +6 | Chase Elliott |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Jeb Burton |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | German Quiroga |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Daniel Hemric |
| 14 | 23 | +9 | Steve Wallace |
| 15 | 5 | -10 | Max Gresham |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Timothy Peters |
| 17 | 8 | -9 | Ryan Sieg |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Brennan Newberry |
| 19 | 25 | +6 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 20 | 13 | -7 | Bubba Wallace |
| 21 | 19 | -2 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Mason Mingus |
| 23 | 28 | +5 | David Starr |
| 24 | 33 | +9 | Norm Benning |
| 25 | 32 | +7 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 26 | 10 | -16 | Joey Coulter |
| 27 | 15 | -12 | John Wes Townley |
| 28 | 21 | -7 | Ron Hornaday Jr. |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | Chad Frewaldt |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Steve Smith |
| 31 | 17 | -14 | Miguel Paludo |
| 32 | 30 | -2 | Chris Jones |
| 33 | 31 | -2 | Bryan Silas |
| 34 | 34 | — | Mike Harmon |
| 35 | 29 | -6 | J.J. Yeley |
| 36 | 20 | -16 | D.J. Kennington |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 1 | +16.7 |
| 2 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 2 | +11.8 |
| 4 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 4 | +20.3 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 7 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 20 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 20 | -6.0 |
| 21 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 21 | -0.9 |
| 23 | David Starr | 20.2 | 23 | -2.8 |
| 35 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 35 | -6.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Erik Jones: has 18 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 15.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P24. Track history: 14 starts, 18.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2013 Lucas Oil 150?
Erik Jones won the 2013 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Where was the 2013 Lucas Oil 150 held?
The 2013 Lucas Oil 150 was held at Phoenix Raceway on January 1, 2013.