Lucas Oil 150
Phoenix Raceway — November 11, 2016
Daniel Suarez
Winner
150
Laps
32
Entries
3
Leaders
Daniel Suarez won the 2016 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway on November 11, 2016, leading 34 of 150 laps. Johnny Sauter finished second; Matt Crafton rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, November 11, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
3 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Johnny Sauter |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Matt Crafton |
| 4 | 7 | +3 | Cameron Hayley |
| 5 | 8 | +3 | Timothy Peters |
| 6 | 6 | — | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 7 | 5 | -2 | Christopher Bell |
| 8 | 17 | +9 | Matt Tifft |
| 9 | 18 | +9 | Ben Kennedy |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Cole Custer |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Rico Abreu |
| 12 | 13 | +1 | Tyler Reddick |
| 13 | 15 | +2 | Daniel Hemric |
| 14 | 9 | -5 | Ben Rhodes |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Austin Cindric |
| 16 | 14 | -2 | Noah Gragson |
| 17 | 19 | +2 | Myatt Snider |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Stewart Friesen |
| 19 | 23 | +4 | Dylan Lupton |
| 20 | 26 | +6 | Kevin Donahue |
| 21 | 27 | +6 | Matt Mills |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Austin Wayne Self |
| 23 | 28 | +5 | Travis Kvapil |
| 24 | 32 | +8 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 25 | 30 | +5 | Bryce Napier |
| 26 | 31 | +5 | Norm Benning |
| 27 | 1 | -26 | William Byron |
| 28 | 11 | -17 | Kaz Grala |
| 29 | 25 | -4 | Jordan Anderson |
| 30 | 22 | -8 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 31 | 24 | -7 | Dominique Van Wieringen |
| 32 | 16 | -16 | Spencer Gallagher |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.9 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 1 | +14.6 |
| 6 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 6 | +14.1 |
| 7 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 7 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 10 | +13.0 |
| 12 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 12 | -2.1 |
| 15 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 15 | +2.0 |
| 16 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 16 | +7.0 |
| 27 | William Byron | 10.3 | 27 | -16.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Daniel Suarez: has 15 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 15.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Christopher Bell: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 Lucas Oil 150?
Daniel Suarez won the 2016 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Where was the 2016 Lucas Oil 150 held?
The 2016 Lucas Oil 150 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 11, 2016.