Texas Roadhouse 200 presented by Alpha Energy
Martinsville Speedway — October 29, 2016
Johnny Sauter
Winner
200
Laps
32
Entries
5
Leaders
Johnny Sauter won the 2016 Texas Roadhouse 200 presented by Alpha Energy at Martinsville Speedway on October 29, 2016, leading 50 of 200 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Johnny Sauter |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 12 | +9 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Christopher Bell |
| 5 | 19 | +14 | Timothy Peters |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 7 | 3 | -4 | Cole Custer |
| 8 | 7 | -1 | William Byron |
| 9 | 13 | +4 | Daniel Hemric |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Austin Hill |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Cameron Hayley |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Cole Whitt |
| 13 | 4 | -9 | Tyler Reddick |
| 14 | 23 | +9 | Ryan Truex |
| 15 | 10 | -5 | Kaz Grala |
| 16 | 9 | -7 | Matt Tifft |
| 17 | 11 | -6 | Matt Crafton |
| 18 | 18 | — | Ben Kennedy |
| 19 | 14 | -5 | Ben Rhodes |
| 20 | 27 | +7 | Austin Theriault |
| 21 | 20 | -1 | John Wes Townley |
| 22 | 16 | -6 | Harrison Burton |
| 23 | 26 | +3 | D.J. Kennington |
| 24 | 24 | — | Rico Abreu |
| 25 | 25 | — | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 26 | 28 | +2 | Justin Fontaine |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | Travis Kvapil |
| 28 | 30 | +2 | Joshua Reeves |
| 29 | 17 | -12 | Spencer Gallagher |
| 30 | 29 | -1 | Kevin Donahue |
| 31 | 22 | -9 | Kyle Donahue |
| 32 | 31 | -1 | Josh White |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 2 | +6.3 |
| 3 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 3 | +17.1 |
| 4 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 4 | +4.6 |
| 6 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 6 | +9.6 |
| 7 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 7 | +16.0 |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.3 | 8 | +2.3 |
| 10 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 10 | +10.2 |
| 13 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 13 | -3.1 |
| 14 | Ryan Truex | 15.6 | 14 | +1.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Johnny Sauter: has 33 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 15.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 10.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- John Hunter Nemechek: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 21 starts, 17.8 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 Texas Roadhouse 200 presented by Alpha Energy?
Johnny Sauter won the 2016 Texas Roadhouse 200 presented by Alpha Energy at Martinsville Speedway driving for GMS Racing.
Where was the 2016 Texas Roadhouse 200 presented by Alpha Energy held?
The 2016 Texas Roadhouse 200 presented by Alpha Energy was held at Martinsville Speedway on October 29, 2016.