South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor SpeedwayThe South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of the first Chase races of the 2026 Cup season, and its 1.5-mile intermediate layout makes it a critical early test in the 10-race championship run. Las Vegas joined the Cup schedule in 1998 and added a second date in 2018, and the fall race has quickly become one of the most important stops on the playoff calendar. The track's 20-degree banking in the turns and relatively narrow racing surface create a tire-wear profile where grip drops off significantly over a 40-lap run, rewarding teams that time their pit windows perfectly and can execute long runs without falling off the preferred groove. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson have traded dominance at Vegas in recent years, and Joey Logano's 2022 South Point 400 win was a springboard to his championship run that fall. With 267 laps split across three stages, the race becomes a strategy puzzle as teams balance stage-point accumulation against track position for the closing run. Under the 2026 Chase format, every point matters, and a strong Vegas finish can swing the cumulative standings significantly heading into the middle third of the 10-race Chase.
Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Tyler Reddick has 22 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 12.8 average finish.
- Chase Elliott has 16 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.1 average finish.
- Denny Hamlin has 37 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 3 wins and a 13.2 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Las Vegas Motor Speedway from 1949-2026.
Jeff Burton has won 5 times at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 11.2 average finish.
See Jeff Burton's full statsKyle Busch has led 1,245 laps at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — more than anyone else.
Kyle Busch's statsThe narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the South Point 400 on?
The South Point 400 airs on USA on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET, broadcast from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?
The South Point 400 green flag is set for 5:30 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 1624 | P1 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 1617 | P2 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 1597 | P13 |
| 4 | Chris Buescher | 1591 | P6 |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe | 1579 | P8 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 1570 | P10 |
| 7 | William Byron | 1561 | P3 |
| 8 | Ryan Preece | 1544 | P11 |
| 9 | Bubba Wallace | 1543 | P9 |
| 10 | Christopher Bell | 1539 | P4 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick Best in Field | 6.2 | 18.2% |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 17.8% |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 16.3% |
| 4 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 15.4% |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 12.7% |
| 6 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 10.9% |
| 7 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 9.6% |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.7 | 8.4% |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 7.6% |
| 10 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 6.4% |
| 11 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 5.2% |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 5.1% |
| 13 | Carson Hocevar | 13.1 | 4.3% |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 3.8% |
| 15 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 3.3% |
| 16 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 3.1% |
| 17 | Ty Gibbs | 14.5 | 3.0% |
| 18 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 2.7% |
| 19 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 2.2% |
| 20 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 1.7% |
| 21 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 1.4% |
| 22 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 1.2% |
| 23 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1.1% |
| 24 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 0.9% |
| 25 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 0.7% |
| 26 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 0.5% |
| 27 | Zane Smith | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 28 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 29 | Todd Gilliland | 19.1 | 0.4% |
| 30 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 0.2% |
| 32 | Connor Zilisch | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 33 | Katherine Legge | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 34 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 0.1% |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 0.0% |
| 39 | Cody Ware | 56.1 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24
(1/5 top-5 hits)
38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races
History at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (23 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube | Denny Hamlin |
| 2025 | South Point 400 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2025 | Pennzoil 400 | Josh Berry |
| 2024 | South Point 400 | Joey Logano |
| 2024 | Pennzoil 400 | Kyle Larson |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 881 |
| Joey Logano | 587 |
| Denny Hamlin | 555 |
| Brad Keselowski | 365 |
| William Byron | 362 |
Track Type Tendencies
Intermediate tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway reward the complete package — car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.
Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
50%+ top-5 rate at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership