American Ethanol E15 225
Chicagoland Speedway — September 16, 2016
Kyle Busch
Winner
151
Laps
32
Entries
5
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2016 American Ethanol E15 225 at Chicagoland Speedway on September 16, 2016, leading 95 of 151 laps. Daniel Hemric finished second; Cameron Hayley rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, September 16, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 10 | +8 | Daniel Hemric |
| 3 | 20 | +17 | Cameron Hayley |
| 4 | 12 | +8 | Christopher Bell |
| 5 | 16 | +11 | Johnny Sauter |
| 6 | 14 | +8 | Grant Enfinger |
| 7 | 1 | -6 | Spencer Gallagher |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Timothy Peters |
| 9 | 17 | +8 | Cole Custer |
| 10 | 4 | -6 | Tyler Reddick |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Daniel Suarez |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | Matt Tifft |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Josh Berry |
| 14 | 18 | +4 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Ryan Truex |
| 16 | 19 | +3 | Tyler Young |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Austin Wayne Self |
| 18 | 25 | +7 | Ray Black Jr. |
| 19 | 15 | -4 | Rico Abreu |
| 20 | 2 | -18 | John Wes Townley |
| 21 | 30 | +9 | Travis Kvapil |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 23 | 23 | — | Jordan Anderson |
| 24 | 24 | — | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 25 | 7 | -18 | Ben Rhodes |
| 26 | 6 | -20 | Ben Kennedy |
| 27 | 13 | -14 | Matt Crafton |
| 28 | 29 | +1 | Reed Sorenson |
| 29 | 28 | -1 | Jesse Little |
| 30 | 9 | -21 | William Byron |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | Norm Benning |
| 32 | 31 | -1 | Caleb Roark |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 4 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 4 | +6.7 |
| 9 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 9 | +13.9 |
| 10 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 10 | -3.8 |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 11 | +3.0 |
| 13 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 13 | +9.9 |
| 14 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 14 | +5.1 |
| 15 | Ryan Truex | 15.4 | 15 | +0.4 |
| 30 | William Byron | 10.7 | 30 | -19.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 32 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 9.5 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 5 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 11.6 avg finish, finishing P10 on the day.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 American Ethanol E15 225?
Kyle Busch won the 2016 American Ethanol E15 225 at Chicagoland Speedway driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Where was the 2016 American Ethanol E15 225 held?
The 2016 American Ethanol E15 225 was held at Chicagoland Speedway on September 16, 2016.