American Ethanol E15 225

Chicagoland Speedway — September 16, 2016

Kyle Busch
Winner
151
Laps
32
Entries
5
Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2016 American Ethanol E15 225 at Chicagoland Speedway on September 16, 2016, leading 95 of 151 laps. Daniel Hemric finished second; Cameron Hayley rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Friday, September 16, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 8 +7 Kyle Busch
2 10 +8 Daniel Hemric
3 20 +17 Cameron Hayley
4 12 +8 Christopher Bell
5 16 +11 Johnny Sauter
6 14 +8 Grant Enfinger
7 1 -6 Spencer Gallagher
8 5 -3 Timothy Peters
9 17 +8 Cole Custer
10 4 -6 Tyler Reddick
11 3 -8 Daniel Suarez
12 11 -1 Matt Tifft
13 22 +9 Josh Berry
14 18 +4 John Hunter Nemechek
15 21 +6 Ryan Truex
16 19 +3 Tyler Young
17 26 +9 Austin Wayne Self
18 25 +7 Ray Black Jr.
19 15 -4 Rico Abreu
20 2 -18 John Wes Townley
21 30 +9 Travis Kvapil
22 27 +5 Jennifer Jo Cobb
23 23 Jordan Anderson
24 24 Tommy Joe Martins
25 7 -18 Ben Rhodes
26 6 -20 Ben Kennedy
27 13 -14 Matt Crafton
28 29 +1 Reed Sorenson
29 28 -1 Jesse Little
30 9 -21 William Byron
31 32 +1 Norm Benning
32 31 -1 Caleb Roark
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Kyle Busch 17.0 1 +16.0
4 Christopher Bell 10.7 4 +6.7
9 Cole Custer 22.9 9 +13.9
10 Tyler Reddick 6.2 10 -3.8
11 Daniel Suarez 14.0 11 +3.0
13 Josh Berry 22.9 13 +9.9
14 John Hunter Nemechek 19.1 14 +5.1
15 Ryan Truex 15.4 15 +0.4
30 William Byron 10.7 30 -19.3

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kyle Busch: has 32 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 9.5 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 5 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 11.6 avg finish, finishing P10 on the day.

Explore More

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2016 American Ethanol E15 225?
Kyle Busch won the 2016 American Ethanol E15 225 at Chicagoland Speedway driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Where was the 2016 American Ethanol E15 225 held?
The 2016 American Ethanol E15 225 was held at Chicagoland Speedway on September 16, 2016.