Lucas Oil 150
Phoenix Raceway — January 1, 2012
Brian Scott
Winner
153
Laps
36
Entries
7
Leaders
Brian Scott won the 2012 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway on January 1, 2012, leading 48 of 153 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Joey Coulter rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Brian Scott |
| 2 | 6 | +4 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 17 | +14 | Joey Coulter |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Timothy Peters |
| 5 | 2 | -3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 14 | +8 | Ryan Sieg |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Cale Gale |
| 8 | 1 | -7 | Nelson Piquet Jr. |
| 9 | 11 | +2 | Ryan Truex |
| 10 | 22 | +12 | Justin Lofton |
| 11 | 23 | +12 | Matt Merrell |
| 12 | 13 | +1 | David Mayhew |
| 13 | 27 | +14 | John Wes Townley |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | Miguel Paludo |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 32 | +16 | Bryan Silas |
| 17 | 9 | -8 | James Buescher |
| 18 | 33 | +15 | Todd Peck |
| 19 | 34 | +15 | Norm Benning |
| 20 | 5 | -15 | Matt Crafton |
| 21 | 26 | +5 | Jason A. White (Virginia) |
| 22 | 10 | -12 | Ron Hornaday Jr. |
| 23 | 19 | -4 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 24 | 18 | -6 | German Quiroga |
| 25 | 16 | -9 | Johnny Sauter |
| 26 | 30 | +4 | Brian Weber |
| 27 | 7 | -20 | Parker Kligerman |
| 28 | 12 | -16 | Todd Bodine |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | John King |
| 30 | 20 | -10 | Jeff Choquette |
| 31 | 24 | -7 | Stephen Leicht |
| 32 | 31 | -1 | Dennis Setzer |
| 33 | 25 | -8 | Ross Chastain |
| 34 | 35 | +1 | Chris Fontaine |
| 35 | 28 | -7 | Chris Jones |
| 36 | 29 | -7 | Blake Koch |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 5 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 2 | +6.6 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 5 | +1.8 |
| 9 | Ryan Truex | 15.6 | 9 | +6.6 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 15 | +9.3 |
| 33 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 33 | -19.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brian Scott: has 6 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 9.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2012 Lucas Oil 150?
Brian Scott won the 2012 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Where was the 2012 Lucas Oil 150 held?
The 2012 Lucas Oil 150 was held at Phoenix Raceway on January 1, 2012.