NASCAR Nationwide Series at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway — June 14, 2014
Paul Menard
Winner
125
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders
Paul Menard won the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 14, 2014, leading 18 of 125 laps. Sam Hornish Jr. finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Season
2014
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Paul Menard |
| 2 | 13 | +11 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 3 | 11 | +8 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Kyle Busch |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Brian Scott |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Chase Elliott |
| 7 | 8 | +1 | Regan Smith |
| 8 | 4 | -4 | Kyle Larson |
| 9 | 3 | -6 | Ty Dillon |
| 10 | 10 | — | Chris Buescher |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Ryan Reed |
| 12 | 17 | +5 | Ross Chastain |
| 13 | 15 | +2 | Ryan Sieg |
| 14 | 26 | +12 | Landon Cassill |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | James Buescher |
| 16 | 9 | -7 | Joey Logano |
| 17 | 12 | -5 | Elliott Sadler |
| 18 | 19 | +1 | Mike Bliss |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Jeremy Clements |
| 21 | 20 | -1 | J.J. Yeley |
| 22 | 16 | -6 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 23 | 27 | +4 | Jeff Green |
| 24 | 22 | -2 | Blake Koch |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 26 | 25 | -1 | Josh Wise |
| 27 | 39 | +12 | Joey Gase |
| 28 | 30 | +2 | Mike Harmon |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | Ryan Ellis |
| 30 | 14 | -16 | Trevor Bayne |
| 31 | 7 | -24 | Dylan Kwasniewski |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 33 | 23 | -10 | Jamie Dick |
| 34 | 31 | -3 | Carl Long |
| 35 | 35 | — | Derrike Cope |
| 36 | 34 | -2 | Tanner Berryhill |
| 37 | 33 | -4 | Matt Carter |
| 38 | 40 | +2 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 39 | 32 | -7 | Kevin Lepage |
| 40 | 38 | -2 | Tim Schendel |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.4 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 4 | +13.0 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 6 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 8 | +4.7 |
| 9 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 9 | +14.4 |
| 10 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 10 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 12 | +1.3 |
| 16 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 16 | -1.3 |
| 21 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 21 | +7.8 |
| 27 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 27 | -3.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Paul Menard: has 38 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 17 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish, finishing P6 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P9 vs predicted P23. Track history: 18 starts, 17.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Michigan?
Paul Menard won the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Michigan held?
The 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Michigan was held at Michigan International Speedway on June 14, 2014.