Ford EcoBoost 200
Homestead-Miami Speedway — January 1, 2015
Matt Crafton
Winner
134
Laps
32
Entries
6
Leaders
Matt Crafton won the 2015 Ford EcoBoost 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on January 1, 2015, leading 93 of 134 laps. John Hunter Nemechek finished second; Tyler Reddick rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Track
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Matt Crafton |
| 2 | 2 | — | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Tyler Reddick |
| 4 | 3 | -1 | Ben Kennedy |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Timothy Peters |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Erik Jones |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Johnny Sauter |
| 8 | 7 | -1 | Daniel Hemric |
| 9 | 11 | +2 | Cameron Hayley |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | John Wes Townley |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Spencer Gallagher |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Austin Theriault |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Rico Abreu |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Jesse Little |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Scott Lagasse Jr. |
| 16 | 15 | -1 | David Gilliland |
| 17 | 22 | +5 | David Levine |
| 18 | 27 | +9 | Ray Black Jr. |
| 19 | 23 | +4 | Tyler Young |
| 20 | 20 | — | Mason Mingus |
| 21 | 25 | +4 | Timmy Hill |
| 22 | 28 | +6 | Travis Kvapil |
| 23 | 21 | -2 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 24 | 32 | +8 | Dexter Stacey |
| 25 | 9 | -16 | Christopher Bell |
| 26 | 24 | -2 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Korbin Forrister |
| 28 | 29 | +1 | Garrett Smithley |
| 29 | 30 | +1 | Jordan Anderson |
| 30 | 6 | -24 | Daniel Suarez |
| 31 | 17 | -14 | Brandon Jones |
| 32 | 26 | -6 | Brandon Brown |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 2 | +17.1 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 3 | +3.2 |
| 6 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 6 | +10.7 |
| 21 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 25 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 25 | -14.3 |
| 30 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 30 | -16.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Matt Crafton: has 24 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 12 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 6.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- John Hunter Nemechek: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 10 starts, 12.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 Ford EcoBoost 200?
Matt Crafton won the 2015 Ford EcoBoost 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for ThorSport Racing.
Where was the 2015 Ford EcoBoost 200 held?
The 2015 Ford EcoBoost 200 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on January 1, 2015.