Kroger 200
Martinsville Speedway — January 1, 2015
Matt Crafton
Winner
200
Laps
32
Entries
4
Leaders
Matt Crafton won the 2015 Kroger 200 at Martinsville Speedway on January 1, 2015, leading 63 of 200 laps. John Hunter Nemechek finished second; Cameron Hayley rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Track
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
4 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +12 | Matt Crafton |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Cameron Hayley |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Cole Custer |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Tyler Reddick |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Timothy Peters |
| 7 | 16 | +9 | Brandon Jones |
| 8 | 18 | +10 | Caleb Holman |
| 9 | 17 | +8 | Johnny Sauter |
| 10 | 8 | -2 | Erik Jones |
| 11 | 26 | +15 | John Wes Townley |
| 12 | 5 | -7 | Daniel Hemric |
| 13 | 9 | -4 | Tyler Young |
| 14 | 10 | -4 | Ben Kennedy |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Travis Kvapil |
| 16 | 6 | -10 | Daniel Suarez |
| 17 | 25 | +8 | Ross Kenseth |
| 18 | 19 | +1 | Mason Mingus |
| 19 | 27 | +8 | Austin Hill |
| 20 | 21 | +1 | Ray Black Jr. |
| 21 | 7 | -14 | Gray Gaulding |
| 22 | 28 | +6 | Bobby Pierce |
| 23 | 12 | -11 | David Gilliland |
| 24 | 30 | +6 | Camden Murphy |
| 25 | 14 | -11 | Austin Cindric |
| 26 | 24 | -2 | Timmy Hill |
| 27 | 29 | +2 | Brandon Hightower |
| 28 | 15 | -13 | Dalton Sargeant |
| 29 | 20 | -9 | Spencer Gallagher |
| 30 | 31 | +1 | Paige Decker |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 32 | 22 | -10 | Justin Haley |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 2 | +18.1 |
| 4 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 4 | +19.0 |
| 5 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 5 | +4.9 |
| 10 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 10 | +7.7 |
| 16 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 19 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 19 | +1.2 |
| 25 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 25 | -8.0 |
| 26 | Timmy Hill | 24.3 | 26 | -1.7 |
| 32 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 32 | -10.8 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Matt Crafton: has 44 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 15 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish, finishing P5 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 18 starts, 17.7 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 Kroger 200?
Matt Crafton won the 2015 Kroger 200 at Martinsville Speedway driving for ThorSport Racing.
Where was the 2015 Kroger 200 held?
The 2015 Kroger 200 was held at Martinsville Speedway on January 1, 2015.