Lucas Oil 150

Phoenix Raceway — January 1, 2015

Timothy Peters

Winner

150

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Timothy Peters won the 2015 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway on January 1, 2015, leading 28 of 150 laps. John Hunter Nemechek finished second; John Wes Townley rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Track

Phoenix Raceway

Season

2015

Winner

Timothy Peters

Leaders

4 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	10	+9	Timothy Peters	Red Horse Racing	150	—	Running	28	47
2	11	+9	John Hunter Nemechek	SWM-NEMCO Racing	150	—	Running	—	42
3	19	+16	John Wes Townley	Athenian Motorsports	150	—	Running	—	41
4	8	+4	Daniel Suarez	Kyle Busch Motorsports	150	—	Running	—	0
5	2	-3	Tyler Reddick	Brad Keselowski Racing	150	—	Running	—	39
6	15	+9	Spencer Gallagher	Gallagher Motorsports	150	—	Running	—	38
7	3	-4	Justin Haley	Braun Motorsports	150	—	Running	—	37
8	17	+9	Matt Tifft	Kyle Busch Motorsports	150	—	Running	—	36
9	1	-8	Erik Jones	Kyle Busch Motorsports	150	—	Running	106	37
10	18	+8	Mason Mingus	Billy Boat Motorsports	150	—	Running	—	34
11	6	-5	Cameron Hayley	ThorSport Racing	150	—	Running	—	33
12	24	+12	Chad Boat	Billy Boat Motorsports	149	—	Running	—	32
13	23	+10	Tyler Young	Young's Motorsports	149	—	Running	—	31
14	21	+7	Austin Cindric	Brad Keselowski Racing	149	—	Running	—	30
15	25	+10	Travis Kvapil	MAKE Motorsports	149	—	Running	1	30
16	26	+10	Bobby Pierce	MB Motorsports	149	—	Running	—	28
17	27	+10	Ruben Pardo	Rick Ware Racing	148	—	Running	—	27
18	28	+10	Timmy Hill	Premium Motorsports	148	—	Running	—	26
19	20	+1	Dalton Sargeant	Wauters Motorsports	148	—	Running	—	25
20	22	+2	Ray Black Jr.	SS Green Light Racing	148	—	Running	—	24
21	13	-8	Daniel Hemric	NTS Motorsports	144	—	Running	—	23
22	29	+7	Jennifer Jo Cobb	Jennifer Jo Cobb Racing	141	—	Running	—	22
23	4	-19	Matt Crafton	ThorSport Racing	130	—	DNF - Crash	15	22
24	12	-12	Ben Kennedy	Red Horse Racing	126	—	Running	—	20
25	16	-9	Johnny Sauter	ThorSport Racing	120	—	DNF - Crash	—	19
26	9	-17	Cole Custer	JR Motorsports	114	—	Running	—	18
27	32	+5	Akinori Ogata	MB Motorsports	105	—	DNF	—	17
28	14	-14	Rico Abreu	NTS Motorsports	44	—	DNF - Crash	—	16
29	31	+2	Jordan Anderson	Mike Harmon Racing	36	—	DNF - Engine	—	15
30	30	—	Korbin Forrister	SS Green Light Racing	15	—	DNF - Crash	—	14
31	5	-26	William Byron	Kyle Busch Motorsports	6	—	DNF - Crash	—	13
32	7	-25	Brandon Jones	Gallagher Motorsports	6	—	DNF - Crash	—	12

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	John Hunter Nemechek	20.1	2	+18.1	Moderate
4	Daniel Suarez	15.6	4	+11.6	Coinflip
5	Tyler Reddick	9.9	5	+4.9	Moderate
7	Justin Haley	21.2	7	+14.2	High Confidence
9	Erik Jones	17.7	9	+8.7	Coinflip
14	Austin Cindric	17.0	14	+3.0	Coinflip
18	Timmy Hill	24.3	18	+6.3	High Confidence
26	Cole Custer	23.0	26	-3.0	High Confidence
31	William Byron	10.3	31	-20.7	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Timothy Peters: has 10 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 12.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 13 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 13.8 avg finish, finishing P5 on the day.
John Hunter Nemechek: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 18 starts, 15.9 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2015 Lucas Oil 150?

Timothy Peters won the 2015 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Red Horse Racing.

Where was the 2015 Lucas Oil 150 held?

The 2015 Lucas Oil 150 was held at Phoenix Raceway on January 1, 2015.