North Carolina Education Lottery 200
Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 21, 2016
Matt Crafton
Winner
134
Laps
32
Entries
9
Leaders
Matt Crafton won the 2016 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 21, 2016, leading 47 of 134 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Johnny Sauter rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, May 21, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | +16 | Matt Crafton |
| 2 | 5 | +3 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Johnny Sauter |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Tyler Reddick |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Matt Tifft |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Spencer Gallagher |
| 7 | 20 | +13 | Timothy Peters |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Christopher Bell |
| 9 | 8 | -1 | Daniel Hemric |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | William Byron |
| 11 | 14 | +3 | Brandon Jones |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 13 | 16 | +3 | Cole Custer |
| 14 | 3 | -11 | Ben Kennedy |
| 15 | 18 | +3 | Cameron Hayley |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | John Wes Townley |
| 17 | 12 | -5 | Ben Rhodes |
| 18 | 13 | -5 | Parker Kligerman |
| 19 | 23 | +4 | Tyler Young |
| 20 | 10 | -10 | Rico Abreu |
| 21 | 24 | +3 | Austin Wayne Self |
| 22 | 22 | — | Ryan Truex |
| 23 | 7 | -16 | Daniel Suarez |
| 24 | 25 | +1 | Jordan Anderson |
| 25 | 28 | +3 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 26 | 19 | -7 | Brandon Brown |
| 27 | 26 | -1 | Bobby Pierce |
| 28 | 31 | +3 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 29 | 29 | — | Garrett Smithley |
| 30 | 27 | -3 | Travis Kvapil |
| 31 | 30 | -1 | Timmy Hill |
| 32 | 32 | — | Andy Seuss |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 2 | +15.0 |
| 4 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 4 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 8 | +2.7 |
| 10 | William Byron | 10.7 | 10 | +0.7 |
| 12 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 12 | +7.1 |
| 13 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 13 | +9.9 |
| 22 | Ryan Truex | 15.4 | 22 | -6.6 |
| 23 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 23 | -9.0 |
| 31 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 31 | -7.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Matt Crafton: has 23 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 12.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 15 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 7.7 avg finish (1 win), finishing P4 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 68 starts, 8.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 North Carolina Education Lottery 200?
Matt Crafton won the 2016 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 at Charlotte Motor Speedway driving for ThorSport Racing.
Where was the 2016 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 held?
The 2016 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 21, 2016.