M&M'S 200 presented by Casey's General Store
Iowa Speedway — June 16, 2019
Brett Moffitt
Winner
200
Laps
32
Entries
4
Leaders
Brett Moffitt won the 2019 M&M'S 200 presented by Casey's General Store at Iowa Speedway on June 16, 2019. Ben Rhodes finished second; Harrison Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Brett Moffitt |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Ben Rhodes |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Harrison Burton |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Grant Enfinger |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Stewart Friesen |
| 6 | 12 | +6 | Sheldon Creed |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Matt Crafton |
| 8 | 1 | -7 | Chandler Smith |
| 9 | 13 | +4 | Raphael Lessard |
| 10 | 11 | +1 | Todd Gilliland |
| 11 | 15 | +4 | Brennan Poole |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Austin Hill |
| 13 | 5 | -8 | Kyle Benjamin |
| 14 | 16 | +2 | Austin Wayne Self |
| 15 | 26 | +11 | Riley Herbst |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Spencer Boyd |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Natalie Decker |
| 18 | 17 | -1 | Jordan Anderson |
| 19 | 14 | -5 | Tyler Dippel |
| 20 | 22 | +2 | Gus Dean |
| 21 | 24 | +3 | Mason Massey |
| 22 | 25 | +3 | Jesse Little |
| 23 | 21 | -2 | C.J. McLaughlin |
| 24 | 29 | +5 | Norm Benning |
| 25 | 32 | +7 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 26 | 30 | +4 | Tyler Hill |
| 27 | 8 | -19 | Johnny Sauter |
| 28 | 27 | -1 | Chad Finley |
| 29 | 20 | -9 | Trey Hutchens |
| 30 | 28 | -2 | Juan Manuel Gonzalez |
| 31 | 31 | — | Tyler Ankrum |
| 32 | 19 | -13 | Ross Chastain |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Moffitt | 6 | 2 | — | — |
| Ben Rhodes | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | 8 | 5 | — | — |
| Grant Enfinger | 2 | 3 | — | — |
| Stewart Friesen | 10 | 6 | — | — |
| Sheldon Creed | 5 | 9 | — | — |
| Matt Crafton | 1 | 7 | — | — |
| Chandler Smith | — | 4 | — | — |
| Raphael Lessard | — | — | — | — |
| Todd Gilliland | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Hill | 7 | 8 | — | — |
| Kyle Benjamin | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Wayne Self | — | — | — | — |
| Riley Herbst | — | — | — | — |
| Spencer Boyd | — | — | — | — |
| Natalie Decker | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Anderson | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Dippel | — | — | — | — |
| Gus Dean | — | — | — | — |
| Mason Massey | — | — | — | — |
| Jesse Little | 9 | — | — | — |
| C.J. McLaughlin | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Benning | — | — | — | — |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Sauter | 3 | 10 | — | — |
| Chad Finley | — | — | — | — |
| Trey Hutchens | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Gonzalez | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Ankrum | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 5 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Todd Gilliland | 19.1 | 10 | +9.1 |
| 11 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 11 | +13.7 |
| 12 | Austin Hill | 21.4 | 12 | +9.4 |
| 15 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 15 | +6.4 |
| 32 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 32 | -18.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brett Moffitt: has 5 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 8.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ross Chastain: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 14.8 avg finish, finishing P32 on the day.
- Brennan Poole: was the biggest surprise, finishing P11 vs predicted P25. Track history: 9 starts, 17.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 M&M'S 200 presented by Casey's General Store?
Brett Moffitt won the 2019 M&M'S 200 presented by Casey's General Store at Iowa Speedway driving for GMS Racing.
Where was the 2019 M&M'S 200 presented by Casey's General Store held?
The 2019 M&M'S 200 presented by Casey's General Store was held at Iowa Speedway on June 16, 2019.