NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway — August 5, 2023
John Hunter Nemechek
Winner
125
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
John Hunter Nemechek won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 5, 2023, leading 65 of 125 laps. Josh Berry finished second; Brandon Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 5, 2023
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Josh Berry |
| 3 | 14 | +11 | Brandon Jones |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Ty Gibbs |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Sam Mayer |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Riley Herbst |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Ross Chastain |
| 8 | 17 | +9 | Parker Kligerman |
| 9 | 24 | +15 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 10 | 23 | +13 | Jeb Burton |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Austin Hill |
| 12 | 15 | +3 | Sheldon Creed |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Ryan Sieg |
| 14 | 2 | -12 | Justin Allgaier |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Daniel Hemric |
| 16 | 13 | -3 | Cole Custer |
| 17 | 12 | -5 | Brett Moffitt |
| 18 | 18 | — | Anthony Alfredo |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Kyle Sieg |
| 20 | 6 | -14 | Chandler Smith |
| 21 | 25 | +4 | Kaz Grala |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Josh Williams |
| 23 | 35 | +12 | Ryan Ellis |
| 24 | 34 | +10 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 25 | 33 | +8 | Sage Karam |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Jeremy Clements |
| 27 | 28 | +1 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 28 | 32 | +4 | Dawson Cram |
| 29 | 37 | +8 | Brennan Poole |
| 30 | 26 | -4 | Garrett Smithley |
| 31 | 30 | -1 | Stefan Parsons |
| 32 | 7 | -25 | Carson Hocevar |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | Blaine Perkins |
| 34 | 36 | +2 | Patrick Emerling |
| 35 | 20 | -15 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 36 | 19 | -17 | Connor Mosack |
| 37 | 31 | -6 | Mason Maggio |
| 38 | 9 | -29 | Sammy Smith |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 1 | +18.1 |
| 2 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 2 | +20.9 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | 14.5 | 4 | +10.5 |
| 6 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 6 | +15.4 |
| 7 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 7 | +6.3 |
| 11 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 11 | +9.9 |
| 14 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 14 | +4.3 |
| 16 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 16 | +6.9 |
| 18 | Anthony Alfredo | 20.9 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 29 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 29 | -4.3 |
| 32 | Carson Hocevar | 13.1 | 32 | -18.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- John Hunter Nemechek: has 11 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 15.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Carson Hocevar: was the model’s top pick based on 6 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 23.3 avg finish, finishing P32 on the day.
- Josh Berry: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 4 starts, 8.5 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan?
John Hunter Nemechek won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan held?
The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan was held at Michigan International Speedway on August 5, 2023.