NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington
Darlington Raceway — May 11, 2024
Justin Allgaier
Winner
147
Laps
38
Entries
4
Leaders
Justin Allgaier won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 11, 2024, leading 119 of 147 laps. Austin Hill finished second; Cole Custer rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, May 11, 2024
Track
Season
2024
Winner
Leaders
4 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | +6 | Justin Allgaier |
| 2 | 5 | +3 | Austin Hill |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Cole Custer |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Sam Mayer |
| 5 | 18 | +13 | Aric Almirola |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Parker Kligerman |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | Riley Herbst |
| 8 | 12 | +4 | Jesse Love |
| 9 | 3 | -6 | Sheldon Creed |
| 10 | 14 | +4 | Brandon Jones |
| 11 | 38 | +27 | William Byron |
| 12 | 2 | -10 | Chandler Smith |
| 13 | 26 | +13 | Ryan Sieg |
| 14 | 8 | -6 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 15 | 17 | +2 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 16 | 16 | — | Jeb Burton |
| 17 | 15 | -2 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 18 | 24 | +6 | Taylor Gray |
| 19 | 13 | -6 | Carson Kvapil |
| 20 | 21 | +1 | Brennan Poole |
| 21 | 25 | +4 | Josh Williams |
| 22 | 30 | +8 | Josh Bilicki |
| 23 | 34 | +11 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | David Starr |
| 25 | 31 | +6 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 26 | 37 | +11 | Chad Finchum |
| 27 | 36 | +9 | Blaine Perkins |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Dawson Cram |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Garrett Smithley |
| 30 | 22 | -8 | Leland Honeyman Jr. |
| 31 | 10 | -21 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 32 | 29 | -3 | Kyle Sieg |
| 33 | 28 | -5 | Patrick Emerling |
| 34 | 23 | -11 | Sammy Smith |
| 35 | 4 | -31 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 36 | 32 | -4 | Hailie Deegan |
| 37 | 19 | -18 | Jeremy Clements |
| 38 | 20 | -18 | Ryan Ellis |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 1 | +17.3 |
| 2 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 2 | +18.9 |
| 3 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 3 | +19.9 |
| 7 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 7 | +14.4 |
| 8 | Jesse Love | 21.4 | 8 | +13.4 |
| 11 | William Byron | 10.7 | 11 | -0.3 |
| 14 | Anthony Alfredo | 20.9 | 14 | +6.9 |
| 15 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 15 | +3.3 |
| 20 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 20 | +4.7 |
| 22 | Josh Bilicki | 28.6 | 22 | +6.6 |
| 23 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 23 | -3.9 |
| 24 | David Starr | 20.9 | 24 | -3.1 |
| 26 | Chad Finchum | 26.4 | 26 | +0.4 |
| 35 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 35 | -16.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Justin Allgaier: has 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 10.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- William Byron: was the model’s top pick based on 16 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P11 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P23. Track history: 14 starts, 11.9 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington?
Justin Allgaier won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway.
Where was the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington held?
The 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington was held at Darlington Raceway on May 11, 2024.