NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington

Darlington Raceway — May 11, 2024

Justin Allgaier
Winner
147
Laps
38
Entries
4
Leaders

Justin Allgaier won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 11, 2024, leading 119 of 147 laps. Austin Hill finished second; Cole Custer rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, May 11, 2024
Season
2024
Leaders
4 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 7 +6 Justin Allgaier
2 5 +3 Austin Hill
3 1 -2 Cole Custer
4 6 +2 Sam Mayer
5 18 +13 Aric Almirola
6 11 +5 Parker Kligerman
7 9 +2 Riley Herbst
8 12 +4 Jesse Love
9 3 -6 Sheldon Creed
10 14 +4 Brandon Jones
11 38 +27 William Byron
12 2 -10 Chandler Smith
13 26 +13 Ryan Sieg
14 8 -6 Anthony Alfredo
15 17 +2 Shane van Gisbergen
16 16 Jeb Burton
17 15 -2 Kyle Weatherman
18 24 +6 Taylor Gray
19 13 -6 Carson Kvapil
20 21 +1 Brennan Poole
21 25 +4 Josh Williams
22 30 +8 Josh Bilicki
23 34 +11 John Hunter Nemechek
24 27 +3 David Starr
25 31 +6 Matt DiBenedetto
26 37 +11 Chad Finchum
27 36 +9 Blaine Perkins
28 33 +5 Dawson Cram
29 35 +6 Garrett Smithley
30 22 -8 Leland Honeyman Jr.
31 10 -21 Parker Retzlaff
32 29 -3 Kyle Sieg
33 28 -5 Patrick Emerling
34 23 -11 Sammy Smith
35 4 -31 A.J. Allmendinger
36 32 -4 Hailie Deegan
37 19 -18 Jeremy Clements
38 20 -18 Ryan Ellis
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Justin Allgaier 18.3 1 +17.3
2 Austin Hill 20.9 2 +18.9
3 Cole Custer 22.9 3 +19.9
7 Riley Herbst 21.4 7 +14.4
8 Jesse Love 21.4 8 +13.4
11 William Byron 10.7 11 -0.3
14 Anthony Alfredo 20.9 14 +6.9
15 Shane van Gisbergen 18.3 15 +3.3
20 Brennan Poole 24.7 20 +4.7
22 Josh Bilicki 28.6 22 +6.6
23 John Hunter Nemechek 19.1 23 -3.9
24 David Starr 20.9 24 -3.1
26 Chad Finchum 26.4 26 +0.4
35 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 35 -16.7

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Justin Allgaier: has 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 10.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • William Byron: was the model’s top pick based on 16 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P11 on the day.
  • Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P23. Track history: 14 starts, 11.9 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington?
Justin Allgaier won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway.
Where was the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington held?
The 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington was held at Darlington Raceway on May 11, 2024.