NASCAR All-Star Race
Dover Motor Speedway — May 17, 2026
Denny Hamlin
Winner
200
Laps
9
Lead Changes
5
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway on May 17, 2026, leading 104 of 200 laps. Chase Briscoe finished second; Erik Jones rounded out the podium. The race had 9 lead changes among 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 17, 2026
Track
Season
2026
Winner
Lead Changes
9
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 2 | — | Chase Briscoe |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Erik Jones |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Austin Dillon |
| 5 | 5 | — | Connor Zilisch |
| 6 | 6 | — | Austin Cindric |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | William Byron |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Michael McDowell |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 14 | +3 | Noah Gragson |
| 12 | 20 | +8 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 13 | 24 | +11 | Ryan Blaney |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Carson Hocevar |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 16 | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Kyle Busch |
| 18 | 19 | +1 | Josh Berry |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 20 | 12 | -8 | Bubba Wallace |
| 21 | 26 | +5 | Daniel Suarez |
| 22 | 3 | -19 | Tyler Reddick |
| 23 | 22 | -1 | Christopher Bell |
| 24 | 18 | -6 | Ty Gibbs |
| 25 | 8 | -17 | Joey Logano |
| 26 | 25 | -1 | Kyle Larson |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 25 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.4 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 1 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Chase Briscoe | 12.1 | 2 | +10.1 |
| 3 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 3 | +14.7 |
| 4 | Austin Dillon | 15.6 | 4 | +11.6 |
| 5 | Connor Zilisch | 21.2 | 5 | +16.2 |
| 6 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 6 | +11.0 |
| 7 | William Byron | 12.0 | 7 | +5.0 |
| 8 | Michael McDowell | 14.7 | 8 | +6.7 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 15.0 | 9 | +6.0 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.6 | 10 | +2.6 |
| 11 | Noah Gragson | 22.1 | 11 | +11.1 |
| 12 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 12 | +6.3 |
| 13 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 13 | -6.2 |
| 14 | Carson Hocevar | 14.0 | 14 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 15 | +9.3 |
| 16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.2 | 16 | +4.2 |
| 18 | Josh Berry | 20.1 | 18 | +2.1 |
| 19 | Shane van Gisbergen | 17.7 | 19 | -1.3 |
| 20 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 20 | -6.0 |
| 21 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 21 | -5.4 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 15 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 11.1 avg finish (4 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Connor Zilisch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P21. Track history: 2 starts, 3.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race?
Denny Hamlin won the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race held?
The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race was held at Dover Motor Speedway on May 17, 2026.