Cup Series Preview Sunday, May 17, 2026

NASCAR All-Star Race

Dover Motor Speedway

Laps 350 Distance 350 mi Type short Coverage FS1 · 1:00 PM ET

concrete

Surface

Race Complete

Sunday, May 17, 2026

1:00 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 14 starts at Dover Motor Speedway with 4 wins and a 9.6 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 14 starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 15.6 average finish.
Chase Elliott has 13 starts at Dover Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 10.2 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Dover Motor Speedway from 1949-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR All-Star Race on?

The NASCAR All-Star Race airs on FS1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, broadcast from Dover Motor Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start this race weekend?

The NASCAR All-Star Race ran on Sunday, May 17, 2026 with a 1:00 PM ET green flag on FS1.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1672	17	1	P4 (2025)
2	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1650	23	3	P1 (2025)
3	Ryan Blaney		1633	15	0	P8 (2025)
4	Joey Logano		1616	23	0	P14 (2025)
5	Christopher Bell		1615	7	0	P18 (2025)
6	Ty Gibbs		1577	3	0	P5 (2025)
7	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1560	15	2	P6 (2025)
8	William Byron		1550	11	0	P31 (2025)
9	Ryan Preece		1541	9	0	P19 (2025)
10	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1541	23	1	P10 (2025)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Chase Elliott	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Tyler Reddick	Favorite	8.6	15.7%	52.8%	72.5%
5	Kyle Larson	Favorite	9.9	12.3%	47.9%	68.6%
6	Christopher Bell	Favorite	9.9	12.3%	47.9%	68.6%
7	Chris Buescher	Contender	10.3	9.7%	43.3%	65.5%
8	Ty Gibbs	Contender	10.3	8.4%	40.2%	63.6%
9	Ryan Preece	Contender	10.8	7.0%	36.5%	60.8%
10	William Byron	Contender	12.0	5.2%	32.6%	58.0%
11	Chase Briscoe	Contender	12.0	5.2%	32.6%	58.0%
12	Brad Keselowski	Contender	12.6	4.4%	30.2%	55.1%
13	Joey Logano	Contender	12.6	3.5%	26.4%	51.6%
14	Ross Chastain	Contender	12.6	3.5%	25.0%	50.4%
15	Bubba Wallace	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	22.4%	46.9%
16	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.6%	19.5%	43.7%
17	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.3%	18.0%	42.8%
18	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.1%	16.6%	41.2%
19	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	15.4	1.8%	15.4%	38.7%
20	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.1%	12.5%	35.6%
21	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.9%	11.6%	33.1%
22	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.8%	9.4%	29.5%
23	Jimmie Johnson	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.6%	8.3%	27.1%
24	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.6%	8.3%	27.1%
25	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	7.9%	24.8%
26	Casey Mears	Mid-Pack	18.0	0.4%	7.0%	23.2%
27	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	18.3	0.4%	6.3%	21.6%
28	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
29	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
30	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
31	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	21.2	0.2%	2.3%	12.2%
32	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.5%
33	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.3%
34	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.9%	8.8%
35	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.6%	8.2%
36	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.8%	8.8%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	24.3	0.0%	0.9%	6.7%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	25.7	0.0%	0.4%	3.5%
39	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	29.8	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

History at Dover Motor Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (13 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2025	AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400	Denny Hamlin	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	67
2024	Würth 400	Denny Hamlin	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	136
2023	Würth 400	Martin Truex, Jr.	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	68
2022	DuraMAX Drydene 400 presented by RelaDyne	Chase Elliott	—	Hendrick Motorsports	73
2021	Drydene 400	Alex Bowman	—	Hendrick Motorsports	98

All Results at This Track

2025 Hamlin 2024 Hamlin 2023 Jr. 2022 Elliott 2021 Bowman 2020 Harvick 2020 Hamlin 2019 Larson 2019 Jr. 2018 Elliott 2018 Harvick 2017 Busch 2017 Johnson

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Kyle Larson	853
Chase Elliott	632
Denny Hamlin	609
Martin Truex, Jr.	546
William Byron	257

Track Type Tendencies

short

Dover Motor Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.