NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE
Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 9, 2015
Austin Dillon
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Austin Dillon won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 9, 2015, leading 61 of 200 laps. Erik Jones finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, October 9, 2015
Track
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Austin Dillon |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Erik Jones |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 7 | +3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Regan Smith |
| 6 | 8 | +2 | Ty Dillon |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Chris Buescher |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Bubba Wallace |
| 9 | 17 | +8 | Chase Elliott |
| 10 | 10 | — | Elliott Sadler |
| 11 | 11 | — | Ryan Reed |
| 12 | 2 | -10 | Kasey Kahne |
| 13 | 6 | -7 | Brian Scott |
| 14 | 14 | — | Ryan Sieg |
| 15 | 15 | — | Brendan Gaughan |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 17 | 16 | -1 | Ryan Truex |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Landon Cassill |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | J.J. Yeley |
| 20 | 23 | +3 | Jeremy Clements |
| 21 | 22 | +1 | Brennan Poole |
| 22 | 26 | +4 | John Wes Townley |
| 23 | 28 | +5 | Ryan Ellis |
| 24 | 19 | -5 | Ross Chastain |
| 25 | 27 | +2 | David Starr |
| 26 | 40 | +14 | Cale Conley |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Joey Gase |
| 28 | 32 | +4 | Eric McClure |
| 29 | 38 | +9 | Mike Harmon |
| 30 | 25 | -5 | Jimmy Weller III |
| 31 | 5 | -26 | Kyle Busch |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | Derrike Cope |
| 33 | 24 | -9 | Blake Koch |
| 34 | 39 | +5 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 35 | 35 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 36 | 30 | -6 | T.J. Bell |
| 37 | 33 | -4 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 38 | 37 | -1 | Josh Reaume |
| 39 | 36 | -3 | Timmy Hill |
| 40 | 29 | -11 | Jeff Green |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 1 | +16.1 |
| 2 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 2 | +14.7 |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 3 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 4 | +10.0 |
| 6 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 6 | +17.4 |
| 7 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 7 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 8 | +4.7 |
| 9 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 17 | Ryan Truex | 15.4 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 19 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 19 | +9.8 |
| 21 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 21 | +3.7 |
| 24 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 24 | -10.7 |
| 25 | David Starr | 20.9 | 25 | -4.1 |
| 27 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 27 | -3.6 |
| 31 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 31 | -14.0 |
| 35 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 35 | -10.2 |
| 39 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 39 | -15.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Austin Dillon: has 29 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 16 starts, 14.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE?
Austin Dillon won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE held?
The 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 9, 2015.