NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI
Homestead-Miami Speedway, November 21, 2015
Kyle Larson
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 21, 2015, leading 118 of 200 laps. Austin Dillon finished second; Erik Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 21, 2015
Track
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | +8 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Austin Dillon |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Erik Jones |
| 4 | 4 | — | Brian Scott |
| 5 | 5 | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Ty Dillon |
| 8 | 13 | +5 | Chase Elliott |
| 9 | 14 | +5 | Regan Smith |
| 10 | 21 | +11 | Bubba Wallace |
| 11 | 11 | — | Chris Buescher |
| 12 | 6 | -6 | Aric Almirola |
| 13 | 8 | -5 | Elliott Sadler |
| 14 | 16 | +2 | Ryan Sieg |
| 15 | 19 | +4 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 16 | 20 | +4 | Landon Cassill |
| 17 | 17 | — | Ryan Reed |
| 18 | 25 | +7 | Blake Koch |
| 19 | 24 | +5 | Ross Chastain |
| 20 | 18 | -2 | Ben Rhodes |
| 21 | 15 | -6 | J.J. Yeley |
| 22 | 22 | — | Jeremy Clements |
| 23 | 12 | -11 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 25 | 33 | +8 | David Starr |
| 26 | 26 | — | Mason Mingus |
| 27 | 30 | +3 | Anthony Kumpen |
| 28 | 34 | +6 | Garrett Smithley |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | Eric McClure |
| 30 | 1 | -29 | Kyle Busch |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | Josh Reaume |
| 32 | 29 | -3 | Joey Gase |
| 33 | 40 | +7 | Tim Viens |
| 34 | 31 | -3 | Mario Gosselin |
| 35 | 39 | +4 | Derek White |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Carlos Contreras |
| 37 | 23 | -14 | Mike Bliss |
| 38 | 32 | -6 | B.J. McLeod |
| 39 | 35 | -4 | T.J. Bell |
| 40 | 27 | -13 | Jeff Green |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 1 | +12.1 |
| 2 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 2 | +17.9 |
| 3 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 3 | +11.7 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 6 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 6 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 7 | +15.9 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 8 | +2.1 |
| 10 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 10 | +2.7 |
| 11 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 11 | -1.8 |
| 19 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 19 | -4.5 |
| 21 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 21 | +7.6 |
| 25 | David Starr | 21.0 | 25 | -4.0 |
| 32 | Joey Gase | 22.9 | 32 | -9.1 |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 38 | -13.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 21 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 9.3 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 18 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 13.6 avg finish, finishing P5 on the day.
- Austin Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 19 starts, 12.5 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI?
Kyle Larson won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI held?
The 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 21, 2015.