NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL
Bristol Motor Speedway, April 16, 2016
Erik Jones
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
4
Leaders
Erik Jones won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on April 16, 2016, leading 62 of 200 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, April 16, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
4 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Erik Jones |
| 2 | 5 | +3 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 3 | — | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Austin Dillon |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Justin Allgaier |
| 6 | 8 | +2 | Daniel Suarez |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Ty Dillon |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 9 | 6 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Aric Almirola |
| 11 | 9 | -2 | Brandon Jones |
| 12 | 14 | +2 | Jeb Burton |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Brennan Poole |
| 14 | 20 | +6 | Ryan Sieg |
| 15 | 15 | — | Elliott Sadler |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 17 | 24 | +7 | David Starr |
| 18 | 27 | +9 | Brandon Gdovic |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | Ryan Preece |
| 20 | 36 | +16 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Ryan Reed |
| 22 | 21 | -1 | Ross Chastain |
| 23 | 25 | +2 | Matt Tifft |
| 24 | 22 | -2 | Mario Gosselin |
| 25 | 13 | -12 | Bubba Wallace |
| 26 | 29 | +3 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 27 | 23 | -4 | Jeff Green |
| 28 | 28 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 29 | 30 | +1 | Garrett Smithley |
| 30 | 31 | +1 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Joey Gase |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Timmy Hill |
| 33 | 18 | -15 | Jeremy Clements |
| 34 | 34 | — | Derrike Cope |
| 35 | 32 | -3 | Ryan Ellis |
| 36 | 35 | -1 | Mike Harmon |
| 37 | 16 | -21 | Blake Koch |
| 38 | 38 | — | J.J. Yeley |
| 39 | 40 | +1 | Josh Wise |
| 40 | 39 | -1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 1 | +16.7 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 3 | +7.3 |
| 4 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 4 | +13.7 |
| 5 | Justin Allgaier | 18.0 | 5 | +13.0 |
| 6 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 6 | +8.0 |
| 7 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 7 | +16.1 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 13 | Brennan Poole | 23.0 | 13 | +10.0 |
| 17 | David Starr | 20.2 | 17 | +3.2 |
| 19 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 19 | -6.4 |
| 22 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 22 | -9.4 |
| 25 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 25 | -12.4 |
| 28 | B.J. McLeod | 24.9 | 28 | -3.1 |
| 31 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 31 | -9.0 |
| 32 | Timmy Hill | 23.1 | 32 | -8.9 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 38 | -10.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Erik Jones: has 26 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 15.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Kyle Larson: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 9.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL?
Erik Jones won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on April 16, 2016.