NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 19, 2016

Austin Dillon
Winner
308
Laps
40
Entries
7
Leaders

Austin Dillon won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2016, leading 4 of 308 laps. Justin Allgaier finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Friday, August 19, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 5 +4 Austin Dillon
2 8 +6 Justin Allgaier
3 7 +4 Kyle Larson
4 15 +11 Elliott Sadler
5 14 +9 Brendan Gaughan
6 12 +6 Jeremy Clements
7 6 -1 Bubba Wallace
8 17 +9 Blake Koch
9 4 -5 Brandon Jones
10 20 +10 Corey LaJoie
11 9 -2 Regan Smith
12 11 -1 Brad Keselowski
13 21 +8 Gray Gaulding
14 28 +14 Ray Black, Jr.
15 18 +3 Ryan Preece
16 30 +14 David Starr
17 25 +8 Mario Gosselin
18 29 +11 Dakoda Armstrong
19 26 +7 B.J. McLeod
20 27 +7 Travis Kvapil
21 32 +11 Brandon Gdovic
22 31 +9 Joey Gase
23 38 +15 Garrett Smithley
24 2 -22 Kyle Busch
25 10 -15 Ty Dillon
26 39 +13 Camden Murphy
27 19 -8 J.J. Yeley
28 13 -15 Brennan Poole
29 35 +6 Derrike Cope
30 3 -27 Daniel Suarez
31 37 +6 T.J. Bell
32 16 -16 Ross Chastain
33 1 -32 Erik Jones
34 36 +2 Hermie Sadler
35 22 -13 Ryan Reed
36 40 +4 Mike Harmon
37 23 -14 Ryan Sieg
38 34 -4 Harrison Rhodes
39 33 -6 Morgan Shepherd
40 24 -16 Matt DiBenedetto
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Austin Dillon 17.0 1 +16.0
2 Justin Allgaier 17.7 2 +15.7
3 Kyle Larson 8.6 3 +5.6
7 Bubba Wallace 14.0 7 +7.0
10 Corey LaJoie 24.9 10 +14.9
12 Brad Keselowski 12.0 12 0.0
15 Ryan Preece 10.8 15 -4.2
16 David Starr 20.2 16 +4.2
19 B.J. McLeod 25.6 19 +6.6
22 Joey Gase 22.0 22 0.0
24 Kyle Busch 15.6 24 -8.4
25 Ty Dillon 24.3 25 -0.7
27 J.J. Yeley 28.1 27 +1.1
28 Brennan Poole 23.1 28 -4.9
30 Daniel Suarez 15.6 30 -14.4
32 Ross Chastain 13.8 32 -18.2
33 Erik Jones 17.7 33 -15.3

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Austin Dillon: has 31 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Kyle Larson: was the model’s top pick based on 37 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.2 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P3 on the day.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL?
Austin Dillon won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2016.