NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL
Bristol Motor Speedway — August 19, 2016
Austin Dillon
Winner
308
Laps
40
Entries
7
Leaders
Austin Dillon won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2016, leading 4 of 308 laps. Justin Allgaier finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, August 19, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Justin Allgaier |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 15 | +11 | Elliott Sadler |
| 5 | 14 | +9 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 6 | 12 | +6 | Jeremy Clements |
| 7 | 6 | -1 | Bubba Wallace |
| 8 | 17 | +9 | Blake Koch |
| 9 | 4 | -5 | Brandon Jones |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Corey LaJoie |
| 11 | 9 | -2 | Regan Smith |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 13 | 21 | +8 | Gray Gaulding |
| 14 | 28 | +14 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 15 | 18 | +3 | Ryan Preece |
| 16 | 30 | +14 | David Starr |
| 17 | 25 | +8 | Mario Gosselin |
| 18 | 29 | +11 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | B.J. McLeod |
| 20 | 27 | +7 | Travis Kvapil |
| 21 | 32 | +11 | Brandon Gdovic |
| 22 | 31 | +9 | Joey Gase |
| 23 | 38 | +15 | Garrett Smithley |
| 24 | 2 | -22 | Kyle Busch |
| 25 | 10 | -15 | Ty Dillon |
| 26 | 39 | +13 | Camden Murphy |
| 27 | 19 | -8 | J.J. Yeley |
| 28 | 13 | -15 | Brennan Poole |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Derrike Cope |
| 30 | 3 | -27 | Daniel Suarez |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | T.J. Bell |
| 32 | 16 | -16 | Ross Chastain |
| 33 | 1 | -32 | Erik Jones |
| 34 | 36 | +2 | Hermie Sadler |
| 35 | 22 | -13 | Ryan Reed |
| 36 | 40 | +4 | Mike Harmon |
| 37 | 23 | -14 | Ryan Sieg |
| 38 | 34 | -4 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 39 | 33 | -6 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 40 | 24 | -16 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 2 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 2 | +15.7 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 3 | +5.6 |
| 7 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 7 | +7.0 |
| 10 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 10 | +14.9 |
| 12 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 12 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 15 | -4.2 |
| 16 | David Starr | 20.2 | 16 | +4.2 |
| 19 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 19 | +6.6 |
| 22 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 22 | 0.0 |
| 24 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 24 | -8.4 |
| 25 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 25 | -0.7 |
| 27 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 27 | +1.1 |
| 28 | Brennan Poole | 23.1 | 28 | -4.9 |
| 30 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 30 | -14.4 |
| 32 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 32 | -18.2 |
| 33 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 33 | -15.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Austin Dillon: has 31 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Kyle Larson: was the model’s top pick based on 37 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.2 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL?
Austin Dillon won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2016.