NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS

Kansas Speedway — October 15, 2016

Kyle Busch
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
7
Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS at Kansas Speedway on October 15, 2016, leading 150 of 200 laps. Elliott Sadler finished second; Daniel Suarez rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, October 15, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 1 Kyle Busch
2 8 +6 Elliott Sadler
3 4 +1 Daniel Suarez
4 11 +7 Joey Logano
5 3 -2 Kyle Larson
6 10 +4 Regan Smith
7 12 +5 Brennan Poole
8 14 +6 Brandon Jones
9 9 Blake Koch
10 21 +11 J.J. Yeley
11 13 +2 Matt DiBenedetto
12 7 -5 Ty Dillon
13 20 +7 Ross Chastain
14 5 -9 Justin Allgaier
15 2 -13 Erik Jones
16 22 +6 Ryan Reed
17 6 -11 Austin Dillon
18 25 +7 Garrett Smithley
19 23 +4 Ray Black, Jr.
20 16 -4 Dakoda Armstrong
21 31 +10 Jeff Green
22 33 +11 B.J. McLeod
23 30 +7 Joey Gase
24 26 +2 David Starr
25 29 +4 Brandon Brown
26 34 +8 Martin Roy
27 38 +11 Josh Reaume
28 27 -1 Jeremy Clements
29 37 +8 Jennifer Cobb
30 39 +9 Mike Harmon
31 18 -13 Brendan Gaughan
32 24 -8 Ryan Preece
33 15 -18 Bubba Wallace
34 17 -17 Ryan Sieg
35 19 -16 Cole Custer
36 32 -4 Ryan Ellis
37 35 -2 Matt Waltz
38 36 -2 Derrike Cope
39 40 +1 Brandon Hightower
40 28 -12 Timmy Hill
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Kyle Busch 17.0 1 +16.0
3 Daniel Suarez 14.0 3 +11.0
4 Joey Logano 14.7 4 +10.7
5 Kyle Larson 12.7 5 +7.7
7 Brennan Poole 24.7 7 +17.7
10 J.J. Yeley 28.8 10 +18.8
12 Ty Dillon 23.4 12 +11.4
13 Ross Chastain 13.3 13 +0.3
14 Justin Allgaier 18.3 14 +4.3
15 Erik Jones 16.7 15 +1.7
17 Austin Dillon 17.1 17 +0.1
22 B.J. McLeod 24.8 22 +2.8
23 Joey Gase 23.4 23 +0.4
24 David Starr 20.9 24 -3.1
32 Ryan Preece 10.1 32 -21.9
33 Bubba Wallace 12.7 33 -20.3
35 Cole Custer 22.9 35 -12.1
40 Timmy Hill 23.9 40 -16.1

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kyle Busch: has 54 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Ryan Preece: was the model’s top pick based on 9 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 15.0 avg finish, finishing P32 on the day.
  • J.J. Yeley: was the biggest surprise, finishing P10 vs predicted P29. Track history: 35 starts, 29.4 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS?
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS at Kansas Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS was held at Kansas Speedway on October 15, 2016.