NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS
Kansas Speedway — October 15, 2016
Kyle Busch
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
7
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS at Kansas Speedway on October 15, 2016, leading 150 of 200 laps. Elliott Sadler finished second; Daniel Suarez rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, October 15, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Elliott Sadler |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Kyle Larson |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Regan Smith |
| 7 | 12 | +5 | Brennan Poole |
| 8 | 14 | +6 | Brandon Jones |
| 9 | 9 | — | Blake Koch |
| 10 | 21 | +11 | J.J. Yeley |
| 11 | 13 | +2 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 12 | 7 | -5 | Ty Dillon |
| 13 | 20 | +7 | Ross Chastain |
| 14 | 5 | -9 | Justin Allgaier |
| 15 | 2 | -13 | Erik Jones |
| 16 | 22 | +6 | Ryan Reed |
| 17 | 6 | -11 | Austin Dillon |
| 18 | 25 | +7 | Garrett Smithley |
| 19 | 23 | +4 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 20 | 16 | -4 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 21 | 31 | +10 | Jeff Green |
| 22 | 33 | +11 | B.J. McLeod |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | Joey Gase |
| 24 | 26 | +2 | David Starr |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | Brandon Brown |
| 26 | 34 | +8 | Martin Roy |
| 27 | 38 | +11 | Josh Reaume |
| 28 | 27 | -1 | Jeremy Clements |
| 29 | 37 | +8 | Jennifer Cobb |
| 30 | 39 | +9 | Mike Harmon |
| 31 | 18 | -13 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 32 | 24 | -8 | Ryan Preece |
| 33 | 15 | -18 | Bubba Wallace |
| 34 | 17 | -17 | Ryan Sieg |
| 35 | 19 | -16 | Cole Custer |
| 36 | 32 | -4 | Ryan Ellis |
| 37 | 35 | -2 | Matt Waltz |
| 38 | 36 | -2 | Derrike Cope |
| 39 | 40 | +1 | Brandon Hightower |
| 40 | 28 | -12 | Timmy Hill |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 3 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 3 | +11.0 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 4 | +10.7 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 5 | +7.7 |
| 7 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 7 | +17.7 |
| 10 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 10 | +18.8 |
| 12 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 12 | +11.4 |
| 13 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 13 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 14 | +4.3 |
| 15 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 15 | +1.7 |
| 17 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 17 | +0.1 |
| 22 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 22 | +2.8 |
| 23 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 23 | +0.4 |
| 24 | David Starr | 20.9 | 24 | -3.1 |
| 32 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 32 | -21.9 |
| 33 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 33 | -20.3 |
| 35 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 35 | -12.1 |
| 40 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 40 | -16.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 54 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Preece: was the model’s top pick based on 9 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 15.0 avg finish, finishing P32 on the day.
- J.J. Yeley: was the biggest surprise, finishing P10 vs predicted P29. Track history: 35 starts, 29.4 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS?
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS at Kansas Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS was held at Kansas Speedway on October 15, 2016.