NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN

Michigan International Speedway — June 11, 2016

Daniel Suarez
Winner
125
Laps
40
Entries
7
Leaders

Daniel Suarez won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway on June 11, 2016, leading 4 of 125 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Paul Menard rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, June 11, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 6 +5 Daniel Suarez
2 5 +3 Kyle Busch
3 12 +9 Paul Menard
4 2 -2 Erik Jones
5 3 -2 Elliott Sadler
6 9 +3 Joey Logano
7 1 -6 Alex Bowman
8 4 -4 Justin Allgaier
9 17 +8 Bubba Wallace
10 15 +5 Brandon Jones
11 8 -3 Brennan Poole
12 10 -2 Ryan Sieg
13 7 -6 Blake Koch
14 11 -3 Ryan Reed
15 13 -2 Ty Dillon
16 18 +2 Ross Chastain
17 20 +3 Garrett Smithley
18 14 -4 Brendan Gaughan
19 24 +5 Ryan Preece
20 21 +1 J.J. Yeley
21 22 +1 Jeremy Clements
22 16 -6 Justin Marks
23 26 +3 Ray Black, Jr.
24 19 -5 Dakoda Armstrong
25 29 +4 Joey Gase
26 30 +4 Harrison Rhodes
27 37 +10 Martin Roy
28 31 +3 T.J. Bell
29 36 +7 Mike Harmon
30 38 +8 Todd Peck
31 32 +1 Derrike Cope
32 35 +3 Chris Cockrum
33 23 -10 Jeff Green
34 28 -6 B.J. McLeod
35 33 -2 Mario Gosselin
36 34 -2 Morgan Shepherd
37 39 +2 John Jackson
38 40 +2 Josh Williams
39 27 -12 Josh Wise
40 25 -15 Matt DiBenedetto
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.8 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Daniel Suarez 14.0 1 +13.0
2 Kyle Busch 17.0 2 +15.0
4 Erik Jones 16.7 4 +12.7
6 Joey Logano 14.7 6 +8.7
7 Alex Bowman 13.5 7 +6.5
8 Justin Allgaier 18.3 8 +10.3
9 Bubba Wallace 12.7 9 +3.7
11 Brennan Poole 24.7 11 +13.7
15 Ty Dillon 23.4 15 +8.4
16 Ross Chastain 13.3 16 -2.7
19 Ryan Preece 10.1 19 -8.9
20 J.J. Yeley 28.8 20 +8.8
25 Joey Gase 23.4 25 -1.6
34 B.J. McLeod 24.8 34 -9.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Daniel Suarez: has 11 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 16.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Ryan Preece: was the model’s top pick based on 5 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish, finishing P19 on the day.
  • Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 55 starts, 12.2 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN?
Daniel Suarez won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN was held at Michigan International Speedway on June 11, 2016.