North Carolina Education Lottery 200
Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 17, 2019
Kyle Busch
Winner
134
Laps
32
Entries
9
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2019 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 17, 2019, leading 102 of 134 laps. Brennan Poole finished second; Stewart Friesen rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, May 17, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 17 | +15 | Brennan Poole |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Stewart Friesen |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Ben Rhodes |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | Matt Crafton |
| 6 | 20 | +14 | Austin Hill |
| 7 | 3 | -4 | Todd Gilliland |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 9 | 9 | — | Grant Enfinger |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | Ross Chastain |
| 11 | 4 | -7 | Harrison Burton |
| 12 | 10 | -2 | Sheldon Creed |
| 13 | 25 | +12 | Tyler Dippel |
| 14 | 22 | +8 | Jesse Little |
| 15 | 28 | +13 | Jordan Anderson |
| 16 | 23 | +7 | Timmy Hill |
| 17 | 12 | -5 | Johnny Sauter |
| 18 | 18 | — | Chad Finley |
| 19 | 6 | -13 | Brett Moffitt |
| 20 | 7 | -13 | Cory Roper |
| 21 | 29 | +8 | Austin Wayne Self |
| 22 | 30 | +8 | Spencer Boyd |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Angela Ruch |
| 24 | 16 | -8 | Stefan Parsons |
| 25 | 27 | +2 | Korbin Forrister |
| 26 | 19 | -7 | Gus Dean |
| 27 | 11 | -16 | Tyler Ankrum |
| 28 | 32 | +4 | Josh Reaume |
| 29 | 14 | -15 | Codie Rohrbaugh |
| 30 | 26 | -4 | Camden Murphy |
| 31 | 21 | -10 | Natalie Decker |
| 32 | 24 | -8 | Joe Nemechek |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 7 | 1 | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| Stewart Friesen | 6 | 6 | — | — |
| Ben Rhodes | 4 | 8 | — | — |
| Matt Crafton | 1 | 4 | — | — |
| Austin Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Todd Gilliland | 2 | 10 | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Grant Enfinger | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | 5 | 2 | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | 9 | 9 | — | — |
| Sheldon Creed | 8 | 7 | — | — |
| Tyler Dippel | — | — | — | — |
| Jesse Little | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Anderson | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Sauter | 10 | — | — | — |
| Chad Finley | — | — | — | — |
| Brett Moffitt | — | 5 | — | — |
| Cory Roper | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Wayne Self | — | — | — | — |
| Spencer Boyd | — | — | — | — |
| Angela Ruch | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Parsons | — | — | — | — |
| Korbin Forrister | — | — | — | — |
| Gus Dean | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Ankrum | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Reaume | — | — | — | — |
| Codie Rohrbaugh | — | — | — | — |
| Camden Murphy | — | — | — | — |
| Natalie Decker | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 2 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 2 | +22.7 |
| 6 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 6 | +14.9 |
| 7 | Todd Gilliland | 19.1 | 7 | +12.1 |
| 8 | Anthony Alfredo | 20.9 | 8 | +12.9 |
| 10 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 10 | +3.3 |
| 16 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 16 | +7.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 68 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 8.4 avg finish (17 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ross Chastain: was the model’s top pick based on 24 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 15.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
- Brennan Poole: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P25. Track history: 11 starts, 22.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 North Carolina Education Lottery 200?
Kyle Busch won the 2019 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 at Charlotte Motor Speedway driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Where was the 2019 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 held?
The 2019 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 17, 2019.