NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway — September 16, 2022
Noah Gragson
Winner
300
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders
Noah Gragson won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 16, 2022, leading 25 of 300 laps. Brandon Jones finished second; Austin Hill rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, September 16, 2022
Track
Season
2022
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | +8 | Noah Gragson |
| 2 | 11 | +9 | Brandon Jones |
| 3 | 15 | +12 | Austin Hill |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Sam Mayer |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Riley Herbst |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 7 | 2 | -5 | Josh Berry |
| 8 | 14 | +6 | Stefan Parsons |
| 9 | 3 | -6 | Justin Allgaier |
| 10 | 10 | — | Ryan Sieg |
| 11 | 20 | +9 | Bayley Currey |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 14 | 6 | -8 | Sammy Smith |
| 15 | 7 | -8 | Jeb Burton |
| 16 | 19 | +3 | Jeremy Clements |
| 17 | 33 | +16 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 18 | 31 | +13 | Sage Karam |
| 19 | 28 | +9 | Ryan Ellis |
| 20 | 8 | -12 | Daniel Hemric |
| 21 | 30 | +9 | Josh Williams |
| 22 | 36 | +14 | Myatt Snider |
| 23 | 37 | +14 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 24 | 35 | +11 | C.J. McLaughlin |
| 25 | 34 | +9 | Kris Wright |
| 26 | 25 | -1 | Alex Labbe |
| 27 | 23 | -4 | Patrick Emerling |
| 28 | 32 | +4 | Ronnie Bassett, Jr. |
| 29 | 24 | -5 | Nick Sanchez |
| 30 | 27 | -3 | David Starr |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Bobby McCarty |
| 32 | 17 | -15 | Mason Massey |
| 33 | 26 | -7 | J.J. Yeley |
| 34 | 29 | -5 | B.J. McLeod |
| 35 | 16 | -19 | Landon Cassill |
| 36 | 1 | -35 | Ty Gibbs |
| 37 | 22 | -15 | Sheldon Creed |
| 38 | 13 | -25 | Brandon Brown |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 1 | +22.0 |
| 3 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 3 | +17.2 |
| 5 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 5 | +17.1 |
| 6 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 6 | +12.3 |
| 7 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 7 | +12.0 |
| 9 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 9 | +8.7 |
| 13 | Anthony Alfredo | 22.0 | 13 | +9.0 |
| 30 | David Starr | 20.2 | 30 | -9.8 |
| 33 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 33 | -4.9 |
| 34 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 34 | -8.4 |
| 36 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 36 | -23.4 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Noah Gragson: has 12 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 15.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ty Gibbs: was the model’s top pick based on 10 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P36 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol?
Noah Gragson won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 16, 2022.