NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix

Phoenix Raceway — March 11, 2023

Sammy Smith

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Sammy Smith won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway on March 11, 2023, leading 92 of 200 laps. Ryan Truex finished second; Sheldon Creed rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Track

Phoenix Raceway

Season

2023

Winner

Sammy Smith

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	11	+10	Sammy Smith	200	—	Running	92	55
2	12	+10	Ryan Truex	200	—	Running	—	35
3	5	+2	Sheldon Creed	200	—	Running	—	44
4	10	+6	Riley Herbst	200	—	Running	—	43
5	6	+1	Chandler Smith	200	—	Running	2	33
6	4	-2	John Hunter Nemechek	200	—	Running	19	33
7	8	+1	Austin Hill	200	—	Running	22	39
8	7	-1	Josh Berry	200	—	Running	—	29
9	38	+29	Kyle Busch	200	—	Running	3	0
10	3	-7	Daniel Hemric	200	—	Running	—	41
11	14	+3	Sam Mayer	200	—	Running	4	33
12	1	-11	Cole Custer	200	—	Running	38	30
13	17	+4	Brett Moffitt	200	—	Running	—	24
14	25	+11	Anthony Alfredo	200	—	Running	—	28
15	37	+22	Parker Kligerman	200	—	Running	—	22
16	9	-7	Ryan Sieg	200	—	Running	—	21
17	18	+1	Kyle Weatherman	200	—	Running	—	20
18	15	-3	Parker Retzlaff	200	—	Running	—	19
19	19	—	Ryan Ellis	200	—	Running	—	18
20	27	+7	Jeremy Clements	200	—	Running	—	17
21	20	-1	Josh Williams	200	—	Running	—	16
22	16	-6	Jeb Burton	200	—	Running	—	15
23	21	-2	Brandon Jones	200	—	Running	—	14
24	36	+12	Connor Mosack	200	—	Running	—	13
25	22	-3	Kyle Sieg	200	—	Running	—	12
26	33	+7	Joey Gase	200	—	Running	—	11
27	23	-4	Leland Honeyman Jr.	200	—	Running	—	10
28	32	+4	Bayley Currey	200	—	Running	—	9
29	28	-1	Brennan Poole	200	—	Running	—	8
30	34	+4	Patrick Emerling	200	—	Running	—	7
31	24	-7	Joe Graf Jr.	200	—	Running	—	6
32	30	-2	Garrett Smithley	200	—	Running	—	5
33	31	-2	Jeffrey Earnhardt	200	—	Running	—	4
34	13	-21	Kaz Grala	199	—	Running	—	5
35	35	—	Blaine Perkins	192	—	Running	—	2
36	2	-34	Justin Allgaier	178	—	Running	20	21
37	26	-11	Gray Gaulding	137	—	DNF	—	1
38	29	-9	Dawson Cram	99	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Ryan Truex	15.6	2	+13.6	Coinflip
4	Riley Herbst	22.1	4	+18.1	High Confidence
6	John Hunter Nemechek	20.1	6	+14.1	Moderate
7	Austin Hill	20.2	7	+13.2	Moderate
8	Josh Berry	19.0	8	+11.0	Moderate
9	Kyle Busch	15.6	9	+6.6	Coinflip
12	Cole Custer	23.0	12	+11.0	High Confidence
14	Anthony Alfredo	22.0	14	+8.0	High Confidence
26	Joey Gase	22.0	26	-4.0	High Confidence
29	Brennan Poole	23.1	29	-5.9	High Confidence
36	Justin Allgaier	17.7	36	-18.3	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Sammy Smith: has 8 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 8.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Truex: was the model’s top pick based on 5 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 12.6 avg finish, finishing P2 on the day.
Riley Herbst: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P22. Track history: 12 starts, 14.9 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix?

Sammy Smith won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway.

Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix held?

The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 11, 2023.