NASCAR Xfinity Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — September 28, 2024

Aric Almirola
Winner
200
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders

Aric Almirola won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on September 28, 2024, leading 16 of 200 laps. Cole Custer finished second; Chandler Smith rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 28, 2024
Season
2024
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 6 +5 Aric Almirola
2 3 +1 Cole Custer
3 2 -1 Chandler Smith
4 4 Connor Zilisch
5 15 +10 Sheldon Creed
6 1 -5 Brandon Jones
7 10 +3 Austin Hill
8 22 +14 Shane van Gisbergen
9 7 -2 Jesse Love
10 16 +6 Riley Herbst
11 18 +7 Josh Williams
12 8 -4 Parker Kligerman
13 5 -8 Sam Mayer
14 24 +10 Matt DiBenedetto
15 20 +5 Anthony Alfredo
16 12 -4 Ryan Sieg
17 14 -3 A.J. Allmendinger
18 28 +10 Brennan Poole
19 29 +10 Ryan Ellis
20 25 +5 J.J. Yeley
21 23 +2 Parker Retzlaff
22 13 -9 Sammy Smith
23 19 -4 Jeb Burton
24 21 -3 Kyle Sieg
25 38 +13 Leland Honeyman Jr.
26 33 +7 Kyle Weatherman
27 26 -1 Jeremy Clements
28 32 +4 Blaine Perkins
29 36 +7 Ryan Vargas
30 35 +5 Patrick Emerling
31 17 -14 Corey Heim
32 34 +2 Joey Gase
33 31 -2 Logan Bearden
34 30 -4 Daniel Dye
35 27 -8 Dawson Cram
36 9 -27 Justin Allgaier
37 37 Brad Perez
38 11 -27 Taylor Gray
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
2 Cole Custer 22.9 2 +20.9
4 Connor Zilisch 22.9 4 +18.9
7 Austin Hill 20.9 7 +13.9
8 Shane van Gisbergen 18.3 8 +10.3
9 Jesse Love 21.4 9 +12.4
10 Riley Herbst 21.4 10 +11.4
15 Anthony Alfredo 20.9 15 +5.9
17 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 17 +1.3
18 Brennan Poole 24.7 18 +6.7
20 J.J. Yeley 28.8 20 +8.8
31 Corey Heim 20.9 31 -10.1
32 Joey Gase 23.4 32 -8.6
34 Daniel Dye 19.1 34 -14.9
36 Justin Allgaier 18.3 36 -17.7

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Aric Almirola: has 24 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 16.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Shane van Gisbergen: was the model’s top pick based on 4 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 17.0 avg finish, finishing P8 on the day.
  • Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 14 starts, 17.8 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Kansas?
Aric Almirola won the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway.
Where was the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Kansas held?
The 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Kansas was held at Kansas Speedway on September 28, 2024.