Straight Talk Wireless 500
Phoenix Raceway — March 8, 2026
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Christopher Bell |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 14 | +10 | Ty Gibbs |
| 5 | 11 | +6 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 28 | +22 | Bubba Wallace |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | William Byron |
| 8 | 8 | — | Tyler Reddick |
| 9 | 16 | +7 | Michael McDowell |
| 10 | 32 | +22 | Erik Jones |
| 11 | 18 | +7 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 12 | 30 | +18 | Todd Gilliland |
| 13 | 13 | — | Ryan Preece |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Chris Buescher |
| 15 | 37 | +22 | Brad Keselowski |
| 16 | 25 | +9 | Austin Dillon |
| 17 | 29 | +12 | Kyle Busch |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Riley Herbst |
| 19 | 23 | +4 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 20 | 7 | -13 | Carson Hocevar |
| 21 | 27 | +6 | Austin Hill |
| 22 | 21 | -1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 23 | 26 | +3 | Chase Elliott |
| 24 | 34 | +10 | Cody Ware |
| 25 | 15 | -10 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 26 | 33 | +7 | Ty Dillon |
| 27 | 24 | -3 | Zane Smith |
| 28 | 6 | -22 | Ross Chastain |
| 29 | 19 | -10 | Connor Zilisch |
| 30 | 4 | -26 | Daniel Suarez |
| 31 | 1 | -30 | Joey Logano |
| 32 | 10 | -22 | Josh Berry |
| 33 | 31 | -2 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 34 | 3 | -31 | Austin Cindric |
| 35 | 36 | +1 | Cole Custer |
| 36 | 35 | -1 | Noah Gragson |
| 37 | 20 | -17 | Chase Briscoe |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Joey Logano | 3 | 3 | — | 16 |
| Denny Hamlin | 5 | 2 | — | 15 |
| Ryan Blaney | 1 | — | — | 10 |
| Tyler Reddick | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Austin Cindric | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Chris Buescher | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Bubba Wallace | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Carson Hocevar | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Daniel Suarez | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Ty Gibbs | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Kyle Larson | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| William Byron | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Todd Gilliland | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Ross Chastain | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Shane van Gisbergen | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Riley Herbst | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Zane Smith | — | — | — | — |
| Connor Zilisch | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Berry | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Gragson | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 37 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 1 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 2 | +6.6 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 3 | +5.6 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 4 | +8.6 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 5 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 6 | +8.0 |
| 7 | William Byron | 10.3 | 7 | +3.3 |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 9 | +6.0 |
| 10 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 10 | +7.7 |
| 11 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 11 | +7.3 |
| 12 | Todd Gilliland | 17.1 | 12 | +5.1 |
| 13 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 13 | -2.2 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 14 | -3.7 |
| 15 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 15 | -3.0 |
| 16 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 16 | +1.0 |
| 17 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 17 | -1.4 |
| 18 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 18 | +4.1 |
| 19 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 19 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Carson Hocevar | 14.7 | 20 | -5.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Ryan Blaney: has 20 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
The Arizona desert proved once again that at Phoenix, the race is won on pit road as much as on the track. A sequence of four cautions in the final 80 laps turned the race into a chess match between crew chiefs, and the winning call — staying out under the fourth yellow while the rest of the lead pack pitted — put the eventual winner in clean air with 22 laps to go. From there, it was a masterclass in short-track racecraft, hitting marks lap after lap on the flat 1-mile oval where there is no banking to bail you out. The runner-up closed to within half a second with 5 laps remaining but could never find a lane through the dogleg to make the pass. The winner led 175 of 312 laps and swept both stage wins, the most dominant Phoenix performance in four seasons.
Key Highlights
- • Winner led 175 of 312 laps and swept both stages
- • Pivotal crew chief call to stay out under Lap 290 caution
- • Four cautions in the final 80 laps created strategy chaos
- • Margin of victory: 0.814 seconds after a dominant day