Aaron's 312
Talladega Superspeedway — January 1, 2005
Martin Truex Jr.
Winner
120
Laps
43
Entries
9
Leaders
Martin Truex Jr. won the 2005 Aaron's 312 at Talladega Superspeedway on January 1, 2005, leading 46 of 120 laps. Jon Wood finished second; David Stremme rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, January 1, 2005
Track
Season
2005
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2 | 31 | +29 | Jon Wood |
| 3 | 30 | +27 | David Stremme |
| 4 | 24 | +20 | Ashton Lewis |
| 5 | 34 | +29 | Kerry Earnhardt |
| 6 | 37 | +31 | Randy LaJoie |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Justin Labonte |
| 8 | 32 | +24 | Jason Keller |
| 9 | 26 | +17 | Brent Sherman |
| 10 | 25 | +15 | Kertus Davis |
| 11 | 35 | +24 | Mark Green |
| 12 | 36 | +24 | Tim Sauter |
| 13 | 28 | +15 | David Green |
| 14 | 40 | +26 | Justin Ashburn |
| 15 | 42 | +27 | Jimmy Kitchens |
| 16 | 43 | +27 | Steve Grissom |
| 17 | 38 | +21 | Kevin Lepage |
| 18 | 7 | -11 | Kevin Harvick |
| 19 | 5 | -14 | Clint Bowyer |
| 20 | 23 | +3 | Tony Stewart |
| 21 | 11 | -10 | Sterling Marlin |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Aaron Fike |
| 23 | 16 | -7 | Stanton Barrett |
| 24 | 13 | -11 | Joe Ruttman |
| 25 | 39 | +14 | Stacy Compton |
| 26 | 21 | -5 | Casey Mears |
| 27 | 1 | -26 | Paul Menard |
| 28 | 3 | -25 | Denny Hamlin |
| 29 | 2 | -27 | Joe Nemechek |
| 30 | 41 | +11 | Michel Jourdain |
| 31 | 9 | -22 | Kasey Kahne |
| 32 | 20 | -12 | Reed Sorenson |
| 33 | 17 | -16 | Carl Edwards |
| 34 | 15 | -19 | Michael Waltrip |
| 35 | 22 | -13 | Kenny Wallace |
| 36 | 33 | -3 | Greg Biffle |
| 37 | 14 | -23 | Tim Fedewa |
| 38 | 6 | -32 | J.J. Yeley |
| 39 | 19 | -20 | Mike Wallace |
| 40 | 8 | -32 | Kyle Busch |
| 41 | 12 | -29 | Johnny Sauter |
| 42 | 29 | -13 | Jeremy Mayfield |
| 43 | 18 | -25 | Shane Hmiel |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 5 matched drivers, the model averaged 15.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 20.1 | 1 | +19.1 |
| 26 | Casey Mears | 18.5 | 26 | -7.5 |
| 28 | Denny Hamlin | 16.0 | 28 | -12.0 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 25.2 | 38 | -12.8 |
| 40 | Kyle Busch | 15.1 | 40 | -24.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Martin Truex Jr.: has 4 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 11.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P40 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P1 vs predicted P20. Track history: 34 starts, 19.6 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2005 Aaron's 312?
Martin Truex Jr. won the 2005 Aaron's 312 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Dale Earnhardt Inc..
Where was the 2005 Aaron's 312 held?
The 2005 Aaron's 312 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on January 1, 2005.