Ford 300

Homestead-Miami Speedway — January 1, 2007

Jeff Burton

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Burton won the 2007 Ford 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on January 1, 2007, leading 51 of 200 laps. Mark Martin finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Monday, January 1, 2007

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Jeff Burton

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	30	+29	Jeff Burton	Richard Childress Racing		200	—	Running	51	190
2	12	+10	Mark Martin	Hendrick Motorsports		200	—	Running	—	170
3	13	+10	Matt Kenseth	Roush Fenway Racing		200	—	Running	—	165
4	2	-2	Carl Edwards	Roush Fenway Racing		200	—	Running	7	165
5	10	+5	Stephen Leicht	Robert Yates Racing		200	—	Running	6	160
6	7	+1	Greg Biffle	Roush Fenway Racing		200	—	Running	—	150
7	39	+32	Tony Raines	Kevin Harvick Inc.		200	—	Running	—	146
8	34	+26	Bobby Hamilton Jr.	Team Rensi Motorsports		200	—	Running	—	142
9	25	+16	Clint Bowyer	Richard Childress Racing		200	—	Running	—	138
10	18	+8	Marcos Ambrose	JTG Daugherty Racing		200	—	Running	—	134
11	33	+22	Brian Keselowski	Whitney Motorsports	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	130
12	40	+28	Bobby East	Baker Curb Racing		200	—	Running	—	127
13	22	+9	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing		200	—	Running	1	129
14	19	+5	Jason Leffler	Braun Racing		200	—	Running	—	121
15	17	+2	David Reutimann	Michael Waltrip Racing		200	—	Running	—	118
16	4	-12	Kevin Harvick	Richard Childress Racing		200	—	Running	84	125
17	27	+10	Brad Keselowski	JR Motorsports		200	—	Running	18	117
18	11	-7	Aric Almirola	Joe Gibbs Racing		200	—	Running	—	109
19	5	-14	Jamie McMurray	Roush Fenway Racing		200	—	Running	—	106
20	24	+4	Kelly Bires	JTG Daugherty Racing		200	—	Running	—	103
21	29	+8	A.J. Allmendinger	Chip Ganassi Racing	Dodge	199	—	Running	3	105
22	9	-13	Casey Mears	Hendrick Motorsports		199	—	Running	—	97
23	31	+8	Mike Bliss	FitzBradshaw Racing	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	94
24	32	+8	Mike Wallace	Phoenix Racing		199	—	Running	1	96
25	8	-17	Kasey Kahne	Gillett Evernham Motorsports	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	88
26	3	-23	Dave Blaney	ppc Racing		199	—	Running	27	90
27	36	+9	Jeremy Clements	McGill Motorsports		199	—	Running	—	82
28	21	-7	Jason Keller	CJM Racing		199	—	Running	—	79
29	38	+9	Kyle Krisiloff	ppc Racing		198	—	Running	—	76
30	43	+13	Mark Green	ML Motorsports		198	—	Running	—	73
31	41	+10	John Graham	Baker Curb Racing		195	—	Running	—	70
32	26	-6	Michael McDowell	Michael Waltrip Racing		176	—	DNF	—	67
33	1	-32	David Ragan	Roush Fenway Racing		170	—	DNF - Crash	2	69
34	14	-20	Steve Wallace	Rusty Wallace Racing	Dodge	163	—	DNF - Crash	—	61
35	37	+2	Richard Johns	Team Rensi Motorsports		152	—	Running	—	58
36	42	+6	Robert Richardson Jr.	Haas CNC Racing		139	—	DNF - Engine	—	55
37	15	-22	Todd Bodine	Germain Racing		124	—	DNF - Crash	—	52
38	6	-32	Sam Hornish Jr.	Penske Racing	Dodge	113	—	DNF - Crash	—	49
39	20	-19	Dario Franchitti	Chip Ganassi Racing	Dodge	43	—	DNF - Crash	—	46
40	16	-24	J.J. Yeley	Phoenix Racing		26	—	DNF - Crash	—	43
41	35	-6	Morgan Shepherd	Faith Motorsports (Shepherd)	Dodge	21	—	DNF	—	40
42	28	-14	Patrick Carpentier	Gillett Evernham Motorsports	Dodge	13	—	DNF - Crash	—	37
43	23	-20	Bobby Labonte	Kevin Harvick Inc.		4	—	DNF - Crash	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.4 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
13	Denny Hamlin	8.2	13	-4.8	High Confidence
17	Brad Keselowski	11.2	17	-5.8	Moderate
21	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	21	-2.7	Moderate
22	Casey Mears	16.9	22	-5.1	Coinflip
32	Michael McDowell	17.0	32	-15.0	Coinflip
40	J.J. Yeley	28.8	40	-11.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Burton: has 22 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 14.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P13 on the day.

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Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2007 Ford 300?

Jeff Burton won the 2007 Ford 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for Richard Childress Racing.

Where was the 2007 Ford 300 held?

The 2007 Ford 300 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on January 1, 2007.