Ford 300
Homestead-Miami Speedway — January 1, 2009
Kyle Busch
Winner
200
Laps
43
Entries
8
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2009 Ford 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on January 1, 2009, leading 73 of 200 laps. Carl Edwards finished second; Jeff Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Track
Season
2009
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Carl Edwards |
| 3 | 3 | — | Jeff Burton |
| 4 | 4 | — | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | David Reutimann |
| 7 | 2 | -5 | Ryan Newman |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Steve Wallace |
| 9 | 9 | — | Scott Speed |
| 10 | 7 | -3 | Matt Kenseth |
| 11 | 10 | -1 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 12 | 8 | -4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 13 | 29 | +16 | Jason Keller |
| 14 | 13 | -1 | Paul Menard |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Mike Wallace |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Mike Bliss |
| 17 | 38 | +21 | Kenny Wallace |
| 18 | 14 | -4 | Jason Leffler |
| 19 | 35 | +16 | Scott Wimmer |
| 20 | 20 | — | Justin Allgaier |
| 21 | 42 | +21 | Michael Annett |
| 22 | 19 | -3 | Kevin Conway |
| 23 | 40 | +17 | Tony Raines |
| 24 | 25 | +1 | John Wes Townley |
| 25 | 27 | +2 | Parker Kligerman |
| 26 | 31 | +5 | Mark Green |
| 27 | 28 | +1 | Ken Butler III |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Eric McClure |
| 29 | 24 | -5 | Kelly Bires |
| 30 | 26 | -4 | Tim Andrews |
| 31 | 41 | +10 | Erik Darnell |
| 32 | 32 | — | Justin Marks |
| 33 | 12 | -21 | Shelby Howard |
| 34 | 34 | — | Blake Koch |
| 35 | 30 | -5 | Danny O'Quinn Jr. |
| 36 | 37 | +1 | Joe Nemechek |
| 37 | 36 | -1 | Chase Miller |
| 38 | 39 | +1 | Kenny Hendrick |
| 39 | 22 | -17 | Mark Day |
| 40 | 17 | -23 | Terry Cook |
| 41 | 21 | -20 | Dennis Setzer |
| 42 | 23 | -19 | Johnny Chapman |
| 43 | 43 | — | Kevin Hamlin |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 5 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 4 | +10.7 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 12 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 12 | -0.8 |
| 20 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 20 | -1.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 38 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2009 Ford 300?
Kyle Busch won the 2009 Ford 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2009 Ford 300 held?
The 2009 Ford 300 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on January 1, 2009.