Ford 200
Homestead-Miami Speedway — January 1, 2011
Johnny Sauter
Winner
119
Laps
36
Entries
9
Leaders
Johnny Sauter won the 2011 Ford 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on January 1, 2011, leading 44 of 119 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Track
Season
2011
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Johnny Sauter |
| 2 | 17 | +15 | Denny Hamlin |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 4 | 3 | -1 | Nelson Piquet Jr. |
| 5 | 10 | +5 | Joey Coulter |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Ty Dillon |
| 7 | 7 | — | Elliott Sadler |
| 8 | 21 | +13 | Timothy Peters |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Jason A. White (Virginia) |
| 10 | 4 | -6 | Austin Dillon |
| 11 | 23 | +12 | David Starr |
| 12 | 1 | -11 | James Buescher |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Ron Hornaday Jr. |
| 14 | 13 | -1 | Parker Kligerman |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Dusty Davis |
| 16 | 15 | -1 | Todd Bodine |
| 17 | 14 | -3 | Ricky Carmichael |
| 18 | 9 | -9 | Justin Lofton |
| 19 | 11 | -8 | Matt Crafton |
| 20 | 19 | -1 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 21 | 24 | +3 | Max Papis |
| 22 | 6 | -16 | Cole Whitt |
| 23 | 28 | +5 | Blake Feese |
| 24 | 30 | +6 | Ryan Sieg |
| 25 | 20 | -5 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | German Quiroga |
| 27 | 36 | +9 | Ross Chastain |
| 28 | 25 | -3 | Bryan Silas |
| 29 | 34 | +5 | Norm Benning |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Clay Greenfield |
| 31 | 26 | -5 | Max Gresham |
| 32 | 18 | -14 | Miguel Paludo |
| 33 | 32 | -1 | Mike Harmon |
| 34 | 29 | -5 | Dennis Setzer |
| 35 | 31 | -4 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 36 | 33 | -3 | Johnny Chapman |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 5 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 2 | +6.2 |
| 6 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 6 | +17.4 |
| 10 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 10 | +7.1 |
| 11 | David Starr | 20.9 | 11 | +9.9 |
| 27 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 27 | -13.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Johnny Sauter: has 21 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 12 starts, 16.8 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2011 Ford 200?
Johnny Sauter won the 2011 Ford 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for ThorSport Racing.
Where was the 2011 Ford 200 held?
The 2011 Ford 200 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on January 1, 2011.