NASCAR Nationwide Series at the Brickyard

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 28, 2012

Brad Keselowski
Winner
100
Laps
43
Entries
6
Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 28, 2012, leading 33 of 100 laps. Sam Hornish Jr. finished second; Ty Dillon rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Season
2012
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 8 +7 Brad Keselowski
2 13 +11 Sam Hornish Jr.
3 3 Ty Dillon
4 4 Denny Hamlin
5 7 +2 Austin Dillon
6 21 +15 Michael Annett
7 6 -1 Joey Logano
8 9 +1 Paul Menard
9 10 +1 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
10 16 +6 Jeremy Clements
11 12 +1 Mike Bliss
12 14 +2 Justin Allgaier
13 19 +6 Travis Pastrana
14 15 +1 Brian Scott
15 5 -10 Elliott Sadler
16 24 +8 Jason Bowles
17 40 +23 Cole Whitt
18 28 +10 Joe Nemechek
19 26 +7 Kenny Wallace
20 23 +3 Mike Wallace
21 39 +18 Jeffrey Earnhardt
22 2 -20 Kyle Busch
23 37 +14 Timmy Hill
24 34 +10 Eric McClure
25 1 -24 Kasey Kahne
26 25 -1 James Buescher
27 11 -16 Ryan Blaney
28 41 +13 Tim Schendel
29 22 -7 Tayler Malsam
30 17 -13 Johanna Long
31 42 +11 Robert Richardson Jr.
32 29 -3 Kyle Fowler
33 27 -6 Reed Sorenson
34 18 -16 Kurt Busch
35 20 -15 Danica Patrick
36 35 -1 Jeff Green
37 38 +1 Scott Riggs
38 33 -5 Erik Darnell
39 43 +4 T.J. Bell
40 36 -4 Kevin Lepage
41 30 -11 Chase Miller
42 31 -11 Josh Wise
43 32 -11 Stephen Leicht
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Brad Keselowski 11.2 1 +10.2
3 Ty Dillon 23.4 3 +20.4
4 Denny Hamlin 8.2 4 +4.2
5 Austin Dillon 17.1 5 +12.1
7 Joey Logano 14.7 7 +7.7
9 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19.9 9 +10.9
12 Justin Allgaier 18.3 12 +6.3
22 Kyle Busch 17.0 22 -5.0
23 Timmy Hill 23.9 23 +0.9
27 Ryan Blaney 9.2 27 -17.8

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Brad Keselowski: has 14 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 11.2 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P4 on the day.
  • Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P23. Track history: 12 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at the Brickyard?
Brad Keselowski won the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at the Brickyard held?
The 2012 NASCAR Nationwide Series at the Brickyard was held at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 28, 2012.