NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL
Bristol Motor Speedway, August 21, 2015
Kyle Busch
Winner
302
Laps
40
Entries
4
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 21, 2015, leading 89 of 302 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, August 21, 2015
Track
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
4 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Ty Dillon |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Brian Scott |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 3 | -5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Regan Smith |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 11 | 5 | -6 | Chris Buescher |
| 12 | 14 | +2 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 13 | — | Brandon Jones |
| 14 | 27 | +13 | Jeremy Clements |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Landon Cassill |
| 16 | 19 | +3 | Ryan Sieg |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Ross Chastain |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Cale Conley |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | J.J. Yeley |
| 20 | 32 | +12 | David Starr |
| 21 | 29 | +8 | Blake Koch |
| 22 | 6 | -16 | Ryan Blaney |
| 23 | 24 | +1 | John Wes Townley |
| 24 | 22 | -2 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 25 | 17 | -8 | Ryan Reed |
| 26 | 40 | +14 | Brad Teague |
| 27 | 33 | +6 | Joey Gase |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | Ryan Ellis |
| 29 | 25 | -4 | Hermie Sadler |
| 30 | 36 | +6 | Derrike Cope |
| 31 | 8 | -23 | Elliott Sadler |
| 32 | 28 | -4 | Dylan Kwasniewski |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | Eric McClure |
| 34 | 23 | -11 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 35 | 30 | -5 | Mario Gosselin |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Jordan Anderson |
| 37 | 26 | -11 | Benny Gordon |
| 38 | 39 | +1 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 39 | 35 | -4 | Carl Long |
| 40 | 31 | -9 | Jeff Green |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 2 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 4 | +19.1 |
| 5 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 5 | +9.0 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 7 | +2.9 |
| 11 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 11 | +1.0 |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 12 | +0.6 |
| 17 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 17 | -4.4 |
| 19 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 19 | +8.3 |
| 20 | David Starr | 20.2 | 20 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 22 | -15.2 |
| 27 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 27 | -5.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 76 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.3 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 33 starts, 18.8 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL?
Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL held?
The 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 21, 2015.