NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series at Iowa
Iowa Speedway — August 1, 2015
Ryan Blaney
Winner
260
Laps
40
Entries
4
Leaders
Ryan Blaney won the 2015 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series at Iowa at Iowa Speedway on August 1, 2015, leading 252 of 260 laps. Regan Smith finished second; Brian Scott rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Regan Smith |
| 3 | 11 | +8 | Brian Scott |
| 4 | 10 | +6 | Ty Dillon |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 6 | 1 | -5 | Daniel Suarez |
| 7 | 5 | -2 | Erik Jones |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Elliott Sadler |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Chase Elliott |
| 10 | 18 | +8 | Ross Chastain |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 12 | 17 | +5 | Ryan Sieg |
| 13 | 6 | -7 | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 14 | — | Brennan Poole |
| 15 | 7 | -8 | Kenny Wallace |
| 16 | 16 | — | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Dylan Lupton |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | J.J. Yeley |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Ryan Reed |
| 20 | 4 | -16 | Brandon Jones |
| 21 | 22 | +1 | Jeremy Clements |
| 22 | 23 | +1 | David Starr |
| 23 | 25 | +2 | Cale Conley |
| 24 | 24 | — | Blake Koch |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | Matt Wallace |
| 26 | 31 | +5 | Eric McClure |
| 27 | 28 | +1 | Johanna Long |
| 28 | 35 | +7 | Anthony Kumpen |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | Mike Harmon |
| 30 | 13 | -17 | Ben Rhodes |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | Matt Frahm |
| 32 | 19 | -13 | Michael Self |
| 33 | 33 | — | Jimmy Weller III |
| 34 | 27 | -7 | Joey Gase |
| 35 | 34 | -1 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 36 | 39 | +3 | John Jackson |
| 37 | 30 | -7 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 38 | 40 | +2 | Zach Bruenger |
| 39 | 38 | -1 | Josh Reaume |
| 40 | 32 | -8 | Jeff Green |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.4 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 1 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 4 | +19.4 |
| 6 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 6 | +8.0 |
| 7 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 7 | +9.7 |
| 9 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 10 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 10 | +3.3 |
| 11 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 11 | +1.7 |
| 13 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 13 | -3.8 |
| 14 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 14 | +10.7 |
| 18 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 18 | +10.8 |
| 22 | David Starr | 20.9 | 22 | -1.1 |
| 34 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 34 | -10.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Ryan Blaney: has 10 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 6.2 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 9.5 avg finish, finishing P9 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 11 starts, 8.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series at Iowa?
Ryan Blaney won the 2015 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series at Iowa at Iowa Speedway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series at Iowa held?
The 2015 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series at Iowa was held at Iowa Speedway on August 1, 2015.