NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT LAS VEGAS
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, March 5, 2016
Kyle Busch
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
2
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT LAS VEGAS at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 5, 2016, leading 199 of 200 laps. Daniel Suarez finished second; Erik Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 2 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, March 5, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
2 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Erik Jones |
| 4 | 4 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 5 | 14 | +9 | Austin Dillon |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Brandon Jones |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | Ty Dillon |
| 8 | 7 | -1 | Elliott Sadler |
| 9 | 6 | -3 | Justin Allgaier |
| 10 | 8 | -2 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 11 | 11 | — | Brennan Poole |
| 12 | 10 | -2 | Aric Almirola |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Ryan Reed |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Ryan Sieg |
| 15 | 15 | — | Brad Keselowski |
| 16 | 24 | +8 | Ross Chastain |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Jeb Burton |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Ryan Preece |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Corey LaJoie |
| 20 | 23 | +3 | Jeremy Clements |
| 21 | 26 | +5 | J.J. Yeley |
| 22 | 16 | -6 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | David Starr |
| 24 | 25 | +1 | Garrett Smithley |
| 25 | 27 | +2 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 26 | 17 | -9 | Blake Koch |
| 27 | 39 | +12 | B.J. McLeod |
| 28 | 36 | +8 | Joey Gase |
| 29 | 34 | +5 | Mario Gosselin |
| 30 | 37 | +7 | Stanton Barrett |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Mike Harmon |
| 32 | 28 | -4 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 33 | 12 | -21 | Bubba Wallace |
| 34 | 13 | -21 | Justin Marks |
| 35 | 35 | — | Cody Ware |
| 36 | 40 | +4 | Derek White |
| 37 | 33 | -4 | Carl Long |
| 38 | 32 | -6 | Josh Reaume |
| 39 | 29 | -10 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 40 | 31 | -9 | Jeff Green |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.8 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 2 | +10.7 |
| 3 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 3 | +11.7 |
| 4 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 4 | +6.1 |
| 5 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 5 | +14.9 |
| 7 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 7 | +15.9 |
| 9 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 9 | +8.1 |
| 11 | Brennan Poole | 23.4 | 11 | +12.4 |
| 15 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 15 | +0.4 |
| 16 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 16 | -1.5 |
| 18 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 18 | -4.7 |
| 19 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 19 | +3.2 |
| 21 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 21 | +7.6 |
| 23 | David Starr | 21.0 | 23 | -2.0 |
| 27 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 27 | -2.3 |
| 28 | Joey Gase | 22.9 | 28 | -5.1 |
| 33 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 33 | -20.3 |
| 35 | Cody Ware | 57.0 | 35 | +22.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 52 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 11.3 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 21 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 16.1 avg finish, finishing P4 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P35 vs predicted P57. Track history: 12 starts, 31.8 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT LAS VEGAS?
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT LAS VEGAS at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT LAS VEGAS held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT LAS VEGAS was held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 5, 2016.